Primeira Liga
Guimaraes vs 
Moreirense Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 43.8%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 56.0% for over 22.5 to 22.6% for over 28.5, with over 22.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 56.0%. Between the two sides, Guimaraes are the model’s pick to have more shots at 68.5%, with a level count at 5.4%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| 24.5 shots | 43.8% | 56.3% |
| 26.5 shots | 32.4% | 67.6% |
| 28.5 shots | 22.6% | 77.4% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
72.4%
56.9%
41.4%
42.4%
26.2%
14.6%
Shot handicap
| Guimaraes line | Guimaraes | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 44.2% | 55.8% |
| -2.5 | 56.7% | 43.3% |
| -0.5 | 68.5% | 31.5% |
| +0.5 | 73.9% | 26.1% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 68.9% | 31.1% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 56.1% | 44.0% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 43.1% | 56.9% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 31.4% | 68.6% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
19.7Guimaraes shots per game7.2Guimaraes shots faced per game7.3Moreirense shots per game15.7Moreirense shots faced per gameTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Guimaraes.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.
43.8%Over 24.5 shots56.9%Guimaraes over 12.5 shots26.2%Moreirense over 12.5 shots56.1%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Guimaraes over 12.5 shots sits at 56.9% and Moreirense at 26.2%. This season Guimaraes have averaged 19.7 shots a game and Moreirense 7.3.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Guimaraes vs Moreirense?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 43.8% for Guimaraes vs Moreirense.
Which team will have more shots in Guimaraes vs Moreirense?
The model rates Guimaraes to take more shots at 68.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 16,705 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Primeira Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
