AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Primeira Liga
GuimaraesGuimaraesLDLDL
Full time5-0Fri, 23 Oct 202623/1020:45UK
MaritimoMaritimoLLLDL

Guimaraes 5-0 Maritimo cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined69.6%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined30.4%

Result

Guimaraes5-0Maritimo
7 yellow cardsGuimaraes 4, Maritimo 3
0 red cardsGuimaraes 0, Maritimo 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 69.6% and it landed (7 in the match). We called No at 91.9% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards69.6%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Diogo Rosa

Recorded match referee.

Diogo Rosa in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 9 2
Goals 3.11 Not available
Yellow cards 6.11 Not available
Red cards 0.11 Not available
Corners 9.6 Not available
Fouls 28.1 Not available
Both teams scored 67% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 67% Not available
Home wins 67% Not available
Latest 9 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
23 Oct 2026 Guimaraes vs Maritimo 5-0 5 No 7 0 11 26
29 Aug 2026 Alverca vs Santa Clara 1-1 2 Yes 3 0 14 23
24 Apr 2026 Alverca vs Arouca 2-1 3 Yes 5 0 9 20
28 Feb 2026 Nacional vs Sp Braga 1-2 3 Yes 5 0 9 30
14 Feb 2026 Casa Pia vs Arouca 3-2 5 Yes 7 0 5 29
4 Jan 2026 Alverca vs Famalicao 1-0 1 No 4 0 7 36
20 Dec 2025 Gil Vicente vs Rio Ave 2-2 4 Yes 8 1 11 32
6 Dec 2025 Santa Clara vs Casa Pia 1-0 1 No 9 0 14 35
13 Sep 2025 Estoril vs AVS 3-1 4 Yes 7 0 6 22

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Guimaraes vs Maritimo. The model leans toward Maritimo for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 85.1% 14.9%
3.5 cards 69.6% 30.4%
4.5 cards 51.2% 48.8%
5.5 cards 33.8% 66.2%

Who picks up more cards

Guimaraes
38.1%
Level
18.9%
Maritimo
43.0%

Team cards lines

Guimaraes

Over 1.5
66.9%
Over 2.5
40.4%

Maritimo

Over 1.5
69.9%
Over 2.5
44.0%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Guimaraes's; Maritimo gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Guimaraes line Guimaraes Maritimo
-1.5 21.9% 78.1%
-0.5 38.1% 61.9%
+0.5 57.0% 43.0%
+1.5 74.2% 25.8%

Red card

Any red card8.1%
Guimaraes red card4.5%
Maritimo red card3.8%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 85.9% 14.1%
22.5 fouls 76.9% 23.1%
24.5 fouls 65.8% 34.2%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,239 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 69.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 85.1% for over 2.5 to 33.8% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.2%. Head to head on cards, Maritimo are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.0%, with a level count at 18.9%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Guimaraes over 1.5 cards sits at 66.9% and Maritimo at 69.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 8.1% (Guimaraes 4.5%, Maritimo 3.8%).

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

69.6%Over 3.5 cards
8.1%Any red card
43.0%Most cards: Maritimo
66.9%Guimaraes over 1.5 cards
69.9%Maritimo over 1.5 cards
76.9%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 69.6% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 8.1%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianMaritimo are the pick to collect more cards at 43.0%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 51.2%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Guimaraes vs Maritimo?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 69.6% for Guimaraes vs Maritimo.
Will there be a red card in Guimaraes vs Maritimo?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 8.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Guimaraes vs Maritimo?
Before kickoff, the model rated Maritimo to pick up more cards at 43.0%, with a level count at 18.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.