Süper Lig
Fenerbahce vs 
Eyupspor Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 2.5 goals at 61.4%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. The goals picture is built on form: Fenerbahce have averaged 1.6 scored and 1.2 conceded, Eyupspor 0.4 and 1.6 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 61.4% for over 2.5 and 82.9% for at least two goals. Their last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 goals a game. Fenerbahce have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Eyupspor in 2 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 95.4% | 4.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 82.9% | 17.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 61.4% | 38.6% |
| 3.5 goals | 39.1% | 60.9% |
| 4.5 goals | 21.5% | 78.6% |
| 5.5 goals | 10.2% | 89.8% |
Team goal lines
90.3%
67.8%
41.4%
56.6%
20.4%
5.3%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 74.5% | 25.5% |
| 1.5 goals | 39.7% | 60.3% |
| 2.5 goals | 15.9% | 84.2% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 83.7% | 16.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 54.2% | 45.8% |
| 2.5 goals | 27.4% | 72.6% |
This season (2026/27)
1.6Fenerbahce goals scored per game1.2Fenerbahce goals conceded per game60.0%Fenerbahce Over 2.5 rate1.2Fenerbahce 1st-half goals per game0.3Eyupspor goals scored per game1.7Eyupspor goals conceded per game33.3%Eyupspor Over 2.5 rate0.2Eyupspor 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
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5+
In-depth analysis
51.6%Both Teams to Score61.4%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 61.4% for three or more goals and 82.9% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Fenerbahce favoured at 70.5%, the scoreline often hinges on whether the favourite is made to chase.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Fenerbahce to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Fenerbahce 2 · 2 draws · Eyupspor 0 · 3.5 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Fenerbahce vs Eyupspor?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 61.4% for Fenerbahce vs Eyupspor.
Will there be a first-half goal in Fenerbahce vs Eyupspor?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 74.5%.
How often have Fenerbahce gone over 2.5 recently?
Fenerbahce have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Eyupspor in 2 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 6,518 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 62.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Süper Lig, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
