Süper Lig
Corum vs 
Alanyaspor Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Under 2.5 goals at 54.3%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Corum have averaged 2.4 scored and 2.0 conceded, Alanyaspor 1.2 and 1.0 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 45.7% for over 2.5 and 72.0% for at least two goals. Corum have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5, Alanyaspor in 2 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 91.2% | 8.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 72.0% | 28.0% |
| 2.5 goals | 45.7% | 54.3% |
| 3.5 goals | 24.3% | 75.7% |
| 4.5 goals | 10.9% | 89.1% |
| 5.5 goals | 4.2% | 95.8% |
Team goal lines
68.6%
32.3%
11.2%
73.9%
38.9%
15.3%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 73.2% | 26.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 37.9% | 62.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 14.7% | 85.3% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 85.4% | 14.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 57.4% | 42.6% |
| 2.5 goals | 30.4% | 69.6% |
This season (2026/27)
2.4Corum goals scored per game2.0Corum goals conceded per game80.0%Corum Over 2.5 rate1.0Corum 1st-half goals per game1.2Alanyaspor goals scored per game1.0Alanyaspor goals conceded per game40.0%Alanyaspor Over 2.5 rate0.4Alanyaspor 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
51.4%Both Teams to Score45.7%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 45.7% for three or more goals and 72.0% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Alanyaspor favoured at 40.4%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Alanyaspor to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Corum vs Alanyaspor?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 45.7% for Corum vs Alanyaspor.
Will there be a first-half goal in Corum vs Alanyaspor?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 73.2%.
How often have Corum gone over 2.5 recently?
Corum have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5, Alanyaspor in 2 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 20,722 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Süper Lig, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
