Süper Lig
Kocaelispor vs 
Gaziantep Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Under 2.5 goals at 65.4%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. Recent output points the same way: Kocaelispor have averaged 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded, Gaziantep 1.4 and 1.0 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 34.6% for over 2.5 and 62.3% for at least two goals. Their last 2 meetings have averaged 2.5 goals a game. Kocaelispor have gone over 2.5 in 1 of their last 5, Gaziantep in 2 of 5. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 86.9% | 13.1% |
| 1.5 goals | 62.3% | 37.7% |
| 2.5 goals | 34.6% | 65.4% |
| 3.5 goals | 15.8% | 84.2% |
| 4.5 goals | 6.1% | 93.9% |
| 5.5 goals | 2.0% | 98.0% |
Team goal lines
68.5%
32.2%
11.1%
60.4%
23.7%
6.7%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 59.6% | 40.4% |
| 1.5 goals | 23.0% | 77.0% |
| 2.5 goals | 6.4% | 93.6% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 67.6% | 32.4% |
| 1.5 goals | 31.1% | 68.9% |
| 2.5 goals | 10.5% | 89.5% |
This season (2026/27)
1.0Kocaelispor goals scored per game0.8Kocaelispor goals conceded per game20.0%Kocaelispor Over 2.5 rate0.4Kocaelispor 1st-half goals per game1.4Gaziantep goals scored per game1.0Gaziantep goals conceded per game40.0%Gaziantep Over 2.5 rate0.8Gaziantep 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
42.1%Both Teams to Score34.6%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 34.6% for three or more goals and 62.3% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. Given Kocaelispor favoured at 40.3%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Kocaelispor to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Kocaelispor 1 · 0 draws · Gaziantep 1 · 2.5 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Kocaelispor vs Gaziantep?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 34.6% for Kocaelispor vs Gaziantep.
Will there be a first-half goal in Kocaelispor vs Gaziantep?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 59.6%.
How often have Kocaelispor gone over 2.5 recently?
Kocaelispor have gone over 2.5 in 1 of their last 5, Gaziantep in 2 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 8,257 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 41.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Süper Lig, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
