AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Süper Lig
GoztepGoztepLDDWW
Full time2-0Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1016:00UK
CorumCorumWWLWW

Goztep 2-0 Corum cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined64.5%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined35.5%

Result

Goztep2-0Corum
2 yellow cardsGoztep 1, Corum 1
Over 3.5

We called Over 3.5 at 64.5% and it missed (2 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards64.5%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Mehmet Turkmen

Recorded match referee.

Mehmet Turkmen in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 22 4
Goals 3.00 Not available
Yellow cards 3.50 Not available
Red cards 0.09 Not available
Corners 8.2 Not available
Fouls 25.9 Not available
Both teams scored 46% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 50% Not available
Home wins 55% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
25 Oct 2026 Goztep vs Corum 2-0 2 No 2 0 5 30
14 Sep 2026 Gaziantep vs Fenerbahce 0-0 0 No 7 0 12 24
29 Aug 2026 Galatasaray vs Goztep 3-2 5 Yes 4 0 8 17
16 Aug 2026 Buyuksehyr vs Kocaelispor 2-0 2 No 4 0 10 28
17 May 2026 Fenerbahce vs Eyupspor 3-3 6 Yes 8 0 6 23
3 May 2026 Kayserispor vs Eyupspor 1-1 2 Yes 0 0 12 28
26 Apr 2026 Genclerbirligi vs Kocaelispor 1-0 1 No 2 0 3 26
11 Apr 2026 Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor 1-1 2 Yes 4 0 7 21
4 Apr 2026 Kasimpasa vs Kayserispor 2-0 2 No 3 1 11 32
13 Mar 2026 Karagumruk vs Fenerbahce 2-0 2 No 4 0 16 23

Mehmet Turkmen referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Goztep vs Corum. The model leans toward Corum for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 81.8% 18.2%
3.5 cards 64.5% 35.5%
4.5 cards 45.4% 54.6%
5.5 cards 28.5% 71.5%

Who picks up more cards

Goztep
37.3%
Level
19.5%
Corum
43.2%

Team cards lines

Goztep

Over 1.5
62.9%
Over 2.5
35.9%

Corum

Over 1.5
66.8%
Over 2.5
40.2%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Goztep's; Corum gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Goztep line Goztep Corum
-1.5 20.7% 79.3%
-0.5 37.3% 62.7%
+0.5 56.8% 43.2%
+1.5 74.6% 25.4%

Red card

Any red card18.1%
Goztep red card4.1%
Corum red card14.5%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 83.2% 16.8%
22.5 fouls 71.6% 28.4%
24.5 fouls 57.6% 42.4%
GoztepGoztep

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Goztep at home and Corum away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

CorumCorum
Statistic
Goztep
Corum
Yellow cards per game
2.4
2.2

First-half yellow cards per game
·
1.2

Second-half yellow cards per game
·
1.2

Matches with card data
1
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,239 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 64.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 81.8% for over 2.5 to 28.5% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.4%. On the card count, Corum are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.2%, with a level count at 19.5%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Goztep over 1.5 cards sits at 62.9% and Corum at 66.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 18.1% (Goztep 4.1%, Corum 14.5%).

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

64.5%Over 3.5 cards
18.1%Any red card
43.2%Most cards: Corum
62.9%Goztep over 1.5 cards
66.8%Corum over 1.5 cards
71.6%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 64.5% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 18.1%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianCorum are the pick to collect more cards at 43.2%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 45.4%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
GoztepGoztep

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

CorumCorum
Statistic
Goztep
Corum
fouls per game
13.6
14.0

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Goztep vs Corum?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 64.5% for Goztep vs Corum.
Will there be a red card in Goztep vs Corum?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 18.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Goztep vs Corum?
Before kickoff, the model rated Corum to pick up more cards at 43.2%, with a level count at 19.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Süper LigGoztep fixtures and statsCorum fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.