AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Eredivisie
Go Ahead EaglesEaglesLDDDD
Full time3-2Fri, 23 Oct 202623/1019:00UK
TelstarTelstarDLDLD

Go Ahead Eagles 3-2 Telstar cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined69.1%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined30.9%

Result

Go Ahead Eagles3-2Telstar
2 yellow cardsGo Ahead Eagles 1, Telstar 1
0 red cardsGo Ahead Eagles 0, Telstar 0
Under 3.5No

We called Under 3.5 at 69.1% and it landed (2 in the match). We called No at 84.4% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards30.9%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Robin Hensgens

Recorded match referee.

Robin Hensgens in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 22 7
Goals 2.77 3.86
Yellow cards 3.05 2.14
Red cards 0.14 0.00
Corners 10.4 9.6
Fouls 22.9 21.1
Both teams scored 50% 57%
Over 2.5 goals 55% 86%
Home wins 32% 43%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
23 Oct 2026 Go Ahead Eagles vs Telstar 3-2 5 Yes 2 0 6 21
16 Oct 2026 Heerenveen vs Excelsior 4-0 4 No 1 0 5 19
10 Oct 2026 For Sittard vs Twente 1-1 2 Yes 1 0 12 30
19 Sep 2026 Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen 0-4 4 No 2 0 9 20
5 Sep 2026 Willem II vs Excelsior 0-3 3 No 3 0 13 24
30 Aug 2026 Feyenoord vs Den Haag 2-2 4 Yes 3 0 14 14
8 Aug 2026 Go Ahead Eagles vs Willem II 4-1 5 Yes 3 0 8 20
10 Apr 2026 Twente vs Volendam 2-1 3 Yes 2 0 8 14
5 Apr 2026 NAC Breda vs Sparta Rotterdam 0-0 0 No 4 0 14 31
15 Mar 2026 AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles 4-0 4 No 4 0 10 29

Robin Hensgens referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Go Ahead Eagles vs Telstar. Slightly more cards are projected for Telstar for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 52.9% 47.1%
3.5 cards 30.9% 69.1%
4.5 cards 15.5% 84.5%
5.5 cards 6.8% 93.3%

Who picks up more cards

Go Ahead Eagles
32.7%
Level
25.0%
Telstar
42.3%

Team cards lines

Go Ahead Eagles

Over 1.5
37.0%
Over 2.5
14.3%

Telstar

Over 1.5
44.3%
Over 2.5
19.5%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Go Ahead Eagles's; Telstar gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Go Ahead Eagles line Go Ahead Eagles Telstar
-1.5 14.4% 85.7%
-0.5 32.7% 67.3%
+0.5 57.7% 42.3%
+1.5 79.1% 20.9%

Red card

Any red card15.7%
Go Ahead Eagles red card11.1%
Telstar red card5.1%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 48.2% 51.8%
22.5 fouls 33.2% 66.8%
24.5 fouls 20.9% 79.1%
Go Ahead EaglesGo Ahead Eagles

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Go Ahead Eagles at home and Telstar away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

TelstarTelstar
Statistic
Go Ahead Eagles
Telstar
Cards per game at this venue
1.0
1.5

Opponent cards per game at this venue
1.5
1.5

Yellow cards per game
0.9
1.5

Matches with card data
8
8
Red cards this season
0
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 7,352 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 30.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 52.9% for over 2.5 to 6.8% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.9%. Between the two sides, Telstar are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.3%, with a level count at 25.0%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Go Ahead Eagles over 1.5 cards sits at 37.0% and Telstar at 44.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 15.7% (Go Ahead Eagles 11.1%, Telstar 5.1%). This season Go Ahead Eagles have averaged 0.9 cards a game and Telstar 1.6.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.

30.9%Over 3.5 cards
15.7%Any red card
42.3%Most cards: Telstar
37.0%Go Ahead Eagles over 1.5 cards
44.3%Telstar over 1.5 cards
33.2%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 30.9% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 15.7%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianTelstar are the pick to collect more cards at 42.3%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 2.5 cards: over sits at 52.9%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
Go Ahead EaglesGo Ahead Eagles

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

TelstarTelstar
Statistic
Go Ahead Eagles
Telstar
cards per game
0.9
1.6

fouls per game
7.0
10.5

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Go Ahead Eagles vs Telstar?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 30.9% for Go Ahead Eagles vs Telstar.
Will there be a red card in Go Ahead Eagles vs Telstar?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 15.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Go Ahead Eagles vs Telstar?
Before kickoff, the model rated Telstar to pick up more cards at 42.3%, with a level count at 25.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.