AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Segunda División
GironaGironaWWDDW
Full time5-1Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1017:30UK
Celta BCelta BLDLWD

Girona 5-1 Celta B cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined78.5%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined21.6%

Result

Girona5-1Celta B
4 yellow cardsGirona 1, Celta B 3
1 red cardsGirona 0, Celta B 1
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 78.5% and it landed (4 in the match). We called No at 78.8% and it missed (1 in the match).

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards78.5%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Jose Guzman

Recorded match referee.

Jose Guzman in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 15 7
Goals 3.33 3.00
Yellow cards 5.53 4.43
Red cards 0.47 0.14
Corners 10.7 10.9
Fouls 25.8 28.1
Both teams scored 73% 71%
Over 2.5 goals 73% 71%
Home wins 47% 29%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Girona vs Celta B 5-1 6 Yes 4 1 9 22
18 Oct 2026 Ceuta vs Oviedo 1-2 3 Yes 7 0 16 34
4 Oct 2026 Sabadell vs Andorra 0-0 0 No 7 0 11 23
20 Sep 2026 Las Palmas vs Burgos 1-2 3 Yes 5 0 13 33
12 Sep 2026 Andorra vs Sociedad B 1-3 4 Yes 6 0 9 36
29 Aug 2026 Leganes vs Eldense 1-0 1 No 1 0 8 23
16 Aug 2026 Eibar vs Tenerife 1-3 4 Yes 1 0 10 26
12 May 2026 Osasuna vs Ath MadridLa Liga 1-2 3 Yes 11 1 12 27
26 Apr 2026 Vallecano vs SociedadLa Liga 3-3 6 Yes 10 1 10 26
12 Apr 2026 Ath Bilbao vs VillarrealLa Liga 1-2 3 Yes 5 0 18 23

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Girona vs Celta B. It tips Celta B for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 90.4% 9.6%
3.5 cards 78.5% 21.6%
4.5 cards 62.4% 37.6%
5.5 cards 45.1% 54.9%

Who picks up more cards

Girona
37.6%
Level
17.6%
Celta B
44.8%

Team cards lines

Girona

Over 1.5
72.9%
Over 2.5
47.7%

Celta B

Over 1.5
76.9%
Over 2.5
53.0%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Girona's; Celta B gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Girona line Girona Celta B
-1.5 22.4% 77.6%
-0.5 37.6% 62.4%
+0.5 55.2% 44.8%
+1.5 71.7% 28.3%

Red card

Any red card21.2%
Girona red card7.4%
Celta B red card14.9%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 85.4% 14.6%
22.5 fouls 75.5% 24.5%
24.5 fouls 63.2% 36.8%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 8,516 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 78.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 90.4% for over 2.5 to 45.1% for over 5.5, with over 5.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.1%. Head to head on cards, Celta B are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.8%, with a level count at 17.6%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Girona over 1.5 cards sits at 72.9% and Celta B at 76.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 21.2% (Girona 7.4%, Celta B 14.9%).

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

78.5%Over 3.5 cards
21.2%Any red card
44.8%Most cards: Celta B
72.9%Girona over 1.5 cards
76.9%Celta B over 1.5 cards
75.5%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 78.5% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 21.2%, a live risk in this one, and a red changes every card line at once.
The DisciplinarianCelta B are the pick to collect more cards at 44.8%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 5.5 cards: over sits at 45.1%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Girona vs Celta B?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 78.5% for Girona vs Celta B.
Will there be a red card in Girona vs Celta B?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 21.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Girona vs Celta B?
Before kickoff, the model rated Celta B to pick up more cards at 44.8%, with a level count at 17.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Segunda División, Cards

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Related

Segunda DivisiónGirona fixtures and statsCelta B fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.