Primeira Liga
Gil Vicente vs 
Maritimo Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 44.7%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 56.9% for over 22.5 to 23.5% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.7%. Head to head on shots, Gil Vicente are the model’s pick to have more shots at 61.6%, with a level count at 5.8%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 56.9% | 43.2% |
| 24.5 shots | 44.7% | 55.3% |
| 26.5 shots | 33.4% | 66.6% |
| 28.5 shots | 23.5% | 76.5% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
68.8%
52.7%
37.2%
48.9%
31.9%
18.9%
Shot handicap
| Gil Vicente line | Gil Vicente | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 37.1% | 62.9% |
| -2.5 | 49.3% | 50.7% |
| -0.5 | 61.6% | 38.4% |
| +0.5 | 67.4% | 32.6% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 68.7% | 31.4% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 55.7% | 44.3% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 42.8% | 57.2% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 31.1% | 68.9% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
13.0Gil Vicente shots per game9.8Gil Vicente shots faced per game10.5Maritimo shots per game12.5Maritimo shots faced per gameTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Gil Vicente.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
44.7%Over 24.5 shots52.7%Gil Vicente over 12.5 shots31.9%Maritimo over 12.5 shots55.7%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Gil Vicente over 12.5 shots sits at 52.7% and Maritimo at 31.9%. This season Gil Vicente have averaged 13.0 shots a game and Maritimo 10.5.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Gil Vicente vs Maritimo?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 44.7% for Gil Vicente vs Maritimo.
Which team will have more shots in Gil Vicente vs Maritimo?
The model rates Gil Vicente to take more shots at 61.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 16,705 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Primeira Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
