AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Primeira Liga
Gil VicenteGil VicenteLDWWL
Mon, 2 Nov 20262/1120:15UK
GuimaraesGuimaraesDLDLW

Gil Vicente vs Guimaraes cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined69%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined31%

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards69.0%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Gil Vicente vs Guimaraes. The model leans toward Guimaraes for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 84.8% 15.3%
3.5 cards 69.0% 31.0%
4.5 cards 50.6% 49.5%
5.5 cards 33.2% 66.8%

Who picks up more cards

Gil Vicente
37.8%
Level
18.9%
Guimaraes
43.3%

Team cards lines

Gil Vicente

Over 1.5
66.3%
Over 2.5
39.7%

Guimaraes

Over 1.5
69.7%
Over 2.5
43.7%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Gil Vicente's; Guimaraes gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Gil Vicente line Gil Vicente Guimaraes
-1.5 21.6% 78.4%
-0.5 37.8% 62.2%
+0.5 56.7% 43.3%
+1.5 74.0% 26.0%

Red card

Any red card14.3%
Gil Vicente red card7.6%
Guimaraes red card7.3%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 85.6% 14.4%
22.5 fouls 76.4% 23.6%
24.5 fouls 65.1% 34.9%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Gil Vicente G. Correia 2 5.5 2.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

Gil VicenteGil Vicente

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Gil Vicente at home and Guimaraes away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

GuimaraesGuimaraes
Statistic
Gil Vicente
Guimaraes
Cards per game at this venue
·
4.0

Opponent cards per game at this venue
·
3.0

Yellow cards per game
2.0
2.9

First-half yellow cards per game
0.6
1.4

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.3
1.5

Matches with more cards than the opponent
·
50.0%

Matches with card data
3
8
Red cards this season
·
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,239 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 69.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 84.8% for over 2.5 to 33.2% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.6%. Head to head on cards, Guimaraes are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.3%, with a level count at 18.9%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Gil Vicente over 1.5 cards sits at 66.3% and Guimaraes at 69.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.3% (Gil Vicente 7.6%, Guimaraes 7.3%). Gil Vicente’s most frequent referee this season, G. Correia, has averaged 5.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.

69.0%Over 3.5 cards
14.3%Any red card
43.3%Most cards: Guimaraes
66.3%Gil Vicente over 1.5 cards
69.7%Guimaraes over 1.5 cards
76.4%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 69.0% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherG. Correia, Gil Vicente’s most frequent referee this season, averages 5.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 14.3%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianGuimaraes are the pick to collect more cards at 43.3%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
Gil VicenteGil Vicente

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

GuimaraesGuimaraes
Statistic
Gil Vicente
Guimaraes
cards per game
·
3.0

fouls per game
13.6
15.7

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Gil Vicente vs Guimaraes?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 69.0% for Gil Vicente vs Guimaraes.
Will there be a red card in Gil Vicente vs Guimaraes?
The model rates a red card for either side at 14.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Gil Vicente vs Guimaraes?
The model rates Guimaraes to pick up more cards at 43.3%, with a level count at 18.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.