AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Pro League
GenkGenkWDDLW
Full time2-1Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1012:30UK
StandardStandardWWLLL

Genk 2-1 Standard cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined53.9%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined46.1%

Result

Genk2-1Standard
3 yellow cardsGenk 1, Standard 2
2 red cardsGenk 1, Standard 1
Under 3.5No

We called Under 3.5 at 53.9% and it landed (3 in the match). We called No at 83.3% and it missed (2 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards46.1%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Jasper Vergoote

Recorded match referee.

Jasper Vergoote in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 33 6
Goals 3.00 3.67
Yellow cards 3.27 3.17
Red cards 0.42 0.83
Corners 11.4 13.3
Fouls 21.7 24.2
Both teams scored 49% 50%
Over 2.5 goals 64% 67%
Home wins 42% 33%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
25 Oct 2026 Genk vs Standard 2-1 3 Yes 3 2 13 20
19 Sep 2026 Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs RAAL La Louviere 2-0 2 No 5 1 8 29
6 Sep 2026 Kortrijk vs Waregem 0-2 2 No 7 2 12 24
22 Aug 2026 Antwerp vs Genk 4-4 8 Yes 2 0 9 30
15 Aug 2026 Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Club Brugge 0-3 3 No 0 0 20 20
8 Aug 2026 Standard vs Cercle Brugge 2-2 4 Yes 2 0 18 22
24 May 2026 St Truiden vs Mechelen 3-0 3 No 4 0 4 11
21 May 2026 Gent vs St. Gilloise 0-0 0 No 4 0 13 16
16 May 2026 Charleroi vs Westerlo 0-1 1 No 5 0 13 21
9 May 2026 Club Brugge vs St Truiden 2-0 2 No 1 1 8 12

Jasper Vergoote referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Genk vs Standard. It tips Standard for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 67.4% 32.6%
3.5 cards 46.1% 53.9%
4.5 cards 27.5% 72.5%
5.5 cards 14.4% 85.6%

Who picks up more cards

Genk
30.4%
Level
21.7%
Standard
47.9%

Team cards lines

Genk

Over 1.5
45.0%
Over 2.5
20.0%

Standard

Over 1.5
58.1%
Over 2.5
31.4%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Genk's; Standard gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Genk line Genk Standard
-1.5 14.3% 85.7%
-0.5 30.4% 69.6%
+0.5 52.1% 47.9%
+1.5 72.6% 27.4%

Red card

Any red card16.7%
Genk red card4.5%
Standard red card12.8%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 56.4% 43.6%
22.5 fouls 41.6% 58.4%
24.5 fouls 28.3% 71.7%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Genk L. Visser 2 4.5 2.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

GenkGenk

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Genk at home and Standard away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

StandardStandard
Statistic
Genk
Standard
Yellow cards per game
2.0
1.6

First-half yellow cards per game
0.6
0.6

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.4
1.0

Matches with card data
0
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 46.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 67.4% for over 2.5 to 14.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.1%. Between the two sides, Standard are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 47.9%, with a level count at 21.7%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Genk over 1.5 cards sits at 45.0% and Standard at 58.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 16.7% (Genk 4.5%, Standard 12.8%). Genk’s most frequent referee this season, L. Visser, has averaged 4.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

46.1%Over 3.5 cards
16.7%Any red card
47.9%Most cards: Standard
45.0%Genk over 1.5 cards
58.1%Standard over 1.5 cards
41.6%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 46.1% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherL. Visser, Genk’s most frequent referee this season, averages 4.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 16.7%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianStandard are the pick to collect more cards at 47.9%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
GenkGenk

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

StandardStandard
Statistic
Genk
Standard
fouls per game
12.4
9.8

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Genk vs Standard?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 46.1% for Genk vs Standard.
Will there be a red card in Genk vs Standard?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 16.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Genk vs Standard?
Before kickoff, the model rated Standard to pick up more cards at 47.9%, with a level count at 21.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Pro League, Cards

Waregem vs Club Brugge cards predictionMechelen vs Genk cards predictionStandard vs Kortrijk cards predictionAnderlecht vs Westerlo cards predictionBeveren vs Union Saint-Gilloise cards predictionCercle Brugge vs Antwerp cards prediction

Cards predictions today

Related

Pro LeagueGenk fixtures and statsStandard fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.