Genk 3-0 Kortrijk cards: our prediction vs the result
Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Result
Genk3-0Kortrijk
We called Under 3.5 at 50.2% and it missed (4 in the match). We called No at 81.5% and it missed (1 in the match).
Model read
Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.
Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.
Conviction: Lean
Over 3.5 cards49.8%
Cards (bookings)
Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.
Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Genk vs Kortrijk. It tips Kortrijk for the most cards.
Total cards
Both teams combined.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 70.6% | 29.4% |
| 3.5 cards | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| 4.5 cards | 30.8% | 69.2% |
| 5.5 cards | 16.8% | 83.2% |
Who picks up more cards
GenkKortrijkTeam cards lines
Genk
Kortrijk
Card handicap
The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Genk's; Kortrijk gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.
| Genk line | Genk | Kortrijk |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13.1% | 86.9% |
| -0.5 | 28.0% | 72.0% |
| +0.5 | 48.8% | 51.2% |
| +1.5 | 69.3% | 30.7% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 59.0% | 41.0% |
| 22.5 fouls | 44.3% | 55.7% |
| 24.5 fouls | 30.8% | 69.2% |
Card trends
2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Genk at home and Kortrijk away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.
Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 49.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 70.6% for over 2.5 to 16.8% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.8%. On the card count, Kortrijk are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 51.2%, with a level count at 20.7%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.
In-depth analysis
For the team lines, Genk over 1.5 cards sits at 45.3% and Kortrijk at 62.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 18.5% (Genk 4.9%, Kortrijk 14.3%). This season Genk have averaged 2.0 cards a game and Kortrijk 2.1.
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
This season
2026/27 · Recorded results.
Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
FAQ
How many cards in Genk vs Kortrijk?
Will there be a red card in Genk vs Kortrijk?
Which team will pick up more cards in Genk vs Kortrijk?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Pro League, Cards
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
