AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 31 Oct 2026

Süper Lig
GalatasarayGalatasarayLWWWW
Sat, 7 Nov 20267/1116:00UK
AmedsporAmedsporWWDWW

Galatasaray vs Amedspor cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined69.7%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined30.3%

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards69.7%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Galatasaray vs Amedspor. The model leans toward Amedspor for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 85.2% 14.8%
3.5 cards 69.7% 30.3%
4.5 cards 51.3% 48.7%
5.5 cards 33.8% 66.2%

Who picks up more cards

Galatasaray
33.5%
Level
18.6%
Amedspor
48.0%

Team cards lines

Galatasaray

Over 1.5
63.7%
Over 2.5
36.8%

Amedspor

Over 1.5
72.8%
Over 2.5
47.5%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Galatasaray's; Amedspor gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Galatasaray line Galatasaray Amedspor
-1.5 18.3% 81.7%
-0.5 33.5% 66.6%
+0.5 52.0% 48.0%
+1.5 70.0% 30.0%

Red card

Any red card35.7%
Galatasaray red card13.3%
Amedspor red card25.9%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 81.1% 18.9%
22.5 fouls 68.7% 31.3%
24.5 fouls 54.2% 45.8%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Galatasaray A. Karaoglan 2 6.0 2.5
Galatasaray B. Kolak 2 4.0 1.5
Amedspor U. Ozturk 2 5.0 3.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

GalatasarayGalatasaray

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Galatasaray at home and Amedspor away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

AmedsporAmedspor
Statistic
Galatasaray
Amedspor
Yellow cards per game
1.6
3.1

First-half yellow cards per game
0.1
0.4

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.4
2.8

Matches with card data
4
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,950Matches graded

In 10,240 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 31 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✓ 50.6%✗ 50.7%✗ 51.1%✓ 52.0%✓ 54.1%✓ 50.1%✓ 54.7%✗ 63.6%✗ 51.1%✗ 52.8%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Frosinone vs Lecce2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.6%Hit
Fiorentina vs Atalanta2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.7%Miss
Milan vs Bologna2026-10-28Over 3.5 51.1%Miss
Parma vs Udinese2026-10-28Under 3.5 52.0%Hit
Venezia vs Inter2026-10-28Under 3.5 54.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 69.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 85.2% for over 2.5 to 33.8% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.3%. Head to head on cards, Amedspor are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 48.0%, with a level count at 18.6%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Galatasaray over 1.5 cards sits at 63.7% and Amedspor at 72.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 35.7% (Galatasaray 13.3%, Amedspor 25.9%). Galatasaray’s most frequent referee this season, A. Karaoglan, has averaged 6.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

69.7%Over 3.5 cards
35.7%Any red card
48.0%Most cards: Amedspor
63.7%Galatasaray over 1.5 cards
72.8%Amedspor over 1.5 cards
68.7%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 69.7% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherA. Karaoglan, Galatasaray’s most frequent referee this season, averages 6.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 35.7%, a live risk in this one, and a red changes every card line at once.
The DisciplinarianAmedspor are the pick to collect more cards at 48.0%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
GalatasarayGalatasaray

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

AmedsporAmedspor
Statistic
Galatasaray
Amedspor
fouls per game
12.0
14.5

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Galatasaray vs Amedspor?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 69.7% for Galatasaray vs Amedspor.
Will there be a red card in Galatasaray vs Amedspor?
The model rates a red card for either side at 35.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Galatasaray vs Amedspor?
The model rates Amedspor to pick up more cards at 48.0%, with a level count at 18.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Süper LigGalatasaray fixtures and statsAmedspor fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.