AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Bundesliga
FreiburgFreiburgWWDWL
Full time1-3Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1016:30UK13°C · Cloudy
Bayern MunichBayern MunichDWWDW

Freiburg 1-3 Bayern Munich cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined57.3%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined42.7%

Result

Freiburg1-3Bayern Munich
4 yellow cardsFreiburg 3, Bayern Munich 1
0 red cardsFreiburg 0, Bayern Munich 0
Under 3.5No

We called Under 3.5 at 57.3% and it missed (4 in the match). We called No at 85.8% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards42.7%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Felix Zwayer

Recorded match referee.

Felix Zwayer in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 22 4
Goals 2.86 Not available
Yellow cards 4.09 Not available
Red cards 0.14 Not available
Corners 10.2 Not available
Fouls 21.8 Not available
Both teams scored 64% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 50% Not available
Home wins 36% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
25 Oct 2026 Freiburg vs Bayern Munich 1-3 4 Yes 4 0 11 20
10 Oct 2026 Paderborn vs Stuttgart 0-2 2 No 1 0 12 21
12 Sep 2026 Mainz vs Ein Frankfurt 1-3 4 Yes 2 0 9 20
29 Aug 2026 Dortmund vs Hamburg 2-0 2 No 3 1 4 32
10 May 2026 Hamburg vs Freiburg 3-2 5 Yes 4 0 6 23
25 Apr 2026 Heidenheim vs St Pauli 2-0 2 No 1 0 12 13
12 Apr 2026 Mainz vs Freiburg 0-1 1 No 4 0 10 23
22 Mar 2026 Augsburg vs Stuttgart 2-5 7 Yes 4 0 7 25
8 Mar 2026 St Pauli vs Ein Frankfurt 0-0 0 No 3 0 11 21
15 Feb 2026 Augsburg vs Heidenheim 1-0 1 No 3 0 9 18

Felix Zwayer referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Freiburg vs Bayern Munich. The model leans toward Bayern Munich for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 64.7% 35.3%
3.5 cards 42.7% 57.3%
4.5 cards 24.3% 75.7%
5.5 cards 12.1% 87.9%

Who picks up more cards

Freiburg
37.1%
Level
22.9%
Bayern Munich
40.0%

Team cards lines

Freiburg

Over 1.5
48.6%
Over 2.5
22.5%

Bayern Munich

Over 1.5
50.7%
Over 2.5
24.3%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Freiburg's; Bayern Munich gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Freiburg line Freiburg Bayern Munich
-1.5 18.5% 81.5%
-0.5 37.1% 62.9%
+0.5 60.0% 40.0%
+1.5 79.5% 20.5%

Red card

Any red card14.2%
Freiburg red card8.6%
Bayern Munich red card6.1%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 43.8% 56.2%
22.5 fouls 31.7% 68.3%
24.5 fouls 21.7% 78.3%
FreiburgFreiburg

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Freiburg at home and Bayern Munich away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Bayern MunichBayern Munich
Statistic
Freiburg
Bayern Munich
Yellow cards per game
1.6
0.8

First-half yellow cards per game
·
0.4

Second-half yellow cards per game
·
0.4

Matches with card data
2
2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 42.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 64.7% for over 2.5 to 12.1% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 42.7%. On the card count, Bayern Munich are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.0%, with a level count at 22.9%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Freiburg over 1.5 cards sits at 48.6% and Bayern Munich at 50.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.2% (Freiburg 8.6%, Bayern Munich 6.1%).

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

42.7%Over 3.5 cards
14.2%Any red card
40.0%Most cards: Bayern Munich
48.6%Freiburg over 1.5 cards
50.7%Bayern Munich over 1.5 cards
31.7%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 42.7% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 14.2%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianBayern Munich are the pick to collect more cards at 40.0%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 42.7%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
FreiburgFreiburg

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Bayern MunichBayern Munich
Statistic
Freiburg
Bayern Munich
fouls per game
10.4
9.6

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Freiburg vs Bayern Munich?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 42.7% for Freiburg vs Bayern Munich.
Will there be a red card in Freiburg vs Bayern Munich?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 14.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Freiburg vs Bayern Munich?
Before kickoff, the model rated Bayern Munich to pick up more cards at 40.0%, with a level count at 22.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Bundesliga, Cards

Elversberg vs Mainz cards predictionAugsburg vs Freiburg cards predictionLeverkusen vs Stuttgart cards predictionBorussia Monchengladbach vs Paderborn cards predictionSchalke 04 vs RB Leipzig cards predictionWerder Bremen vs Hoffenheim cards prediction

Cards predictions today

Related

BundesligaFreiburg fixtures and statsBayern Munich fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.