Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
FC Koln53.2%
Win probability · fair 1.88
Top signals
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely84.7%Fair 1.18
FC Koln or drawLikely74.5%Fair 1.34
Over 2.5 goalsLikely64.2%Fair 1.56
Model read
▾
On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes FC Koln heavy favourites at 53% when FC Koln meet M'gladbach in the Bundesliga on 9 October 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Everything in the shot data points to goals, 64% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 64%. • Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 1 wins for FC Koln, 3 draws and 1 for M'gladbach, averaging 4.0 goals a game. • Gian-Luca Waldschmidt drives the home shot volume, 1.7 on target per 90. The run in: FC Koln arrive W1 D2 L3, M'gladbach W2 D0 L4. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Draw or M'gladbach46.8%@ 2.14
Over 10.5 corners41.9%@ 2.39
Over 11.5 corners32.5%@ 3.08
Medium risk
Over 9.5 corners52.3%@ 1.91
Random finds
1-1 correct score10.2%@ 9.84
2-1 correct score9.4%@ 10.60
2-0 correct score7.0%@ 14.37
Model vs market
FC Koln
53.2%
Draw
21.3%
M'gladbach
25.5%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely84.7%Fair 1.18
Over 2.5Likely64.2%Fair 1.56
BTTS · YesLikely64.1%Fair 1.56
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersLikely63.0%Fair 1.59
Over 9.5 cornersClose call52.3%Fair 1.91
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely41.9%Fair 2.39
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely32.5%Fair 3.08
Most cornersFC Koln57.3%M'gladbach32.3%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely73.7%Fair 1.36
Over 24.5 shotsLikely62.5%Fair 1.60
Over 26.5 shotsClose call50.5%Fair 1.98
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely38.7%Fair 2.58
Recent shot volume
FC Koln14.3 taken15.7 faced
M'gladbach13.7 taken15.0 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
FC Koln (3 games)
5.7 / 11.3
M'gladbach (3 games)
6.7 / 8.3
Totals line guide
0.5·1.584.7%2.564.2%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.564.2%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
FC KolnLLWLD
M'gladbachLWLLL
Last 5 meetings: FC Koln 1 · 3 draws · M'gladbach 1 · 4.0 goals/game.
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Gian-Luca WaldschmidtFC Koln · key player
To score18.1%5.52
1+ on target38.2%2.62
2+ shots27.9%3.58
Shots/90 3.66SoT/90 1.69Goals/90 0.7
Tim KleindienstM'gladbach · key player
To score33.6%2.98
1+ on target63.0%1.59
2+ shots61.8%1.62
Shots/90 2.35SoT/90 1.12Goals/90 0.46
Said El MalaFC Koln · in form
To score31.5%3.17
1+ on target60.0%1.67
2+ shots66.2%1.51
Shots/90 3.54SoT/90 1.43Goals/90 0.59
Shuto MachinoM'gladbach · in form
To score20.3%4.93
1+ on target40.4%2.48
2+ shots32.9%3.04
Shots/90 2.39SoT/90 1.05Goals/90 0.46
Ragnar AcheFC Koln · in form
To score21.4%4.67
1+ on target47.1%2.12
2+ shots54.2%1.85
Shots/90 2.8SoT/90 0.98Goals/90 0.37
Hugo BolinM'gladbach · in form
To score16.3%6.13
1+ on target41.0%2.44
2+ shots47.2%2.12
Shots/90 2.86SoT/90 0.95Goals/90 0.32
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
FC Koln win1.97
Draw4.36
M'gladbach win3.82
Both teams to score1.56
Goals
Over 1.5 goals1.18
Over 2.5 goals1.56
Over 3.5 goals2.37
Over 4.5 goals4.19
FC Koln most1.97
M'gladbach most3.82
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.31
Over 8.5 corners1.52
Over 9.5 corners1.86
Over 10.5 corners2.38
FC Koln most1.74
M'gladbach most3.09
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.34
Over 3.5 cards1.83
Over 4.5 cards2.86
Over 5.5 cards5.05
FC Koln most2.74
M'gladbach most2.35
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.18
Over 7.5 SoT1.32
Over 8.5 SoT1.52
Over 9.5 SoT1.84
FC Koln most1.50
M'gladbach most4.24
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.36
Over 24.5 shots1.60
Over 26.5 shots1.98
Over 28.5 shots2.58
FC Koln most1.54
M'gladbach most3.37
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls2.19
Over 22.5 fouls2.95
Over 24.5 fouls4.21
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
73.7%
Over 24.5
62.5%
Over 26.5
50.5%
Over 28.5
38.7%
Most: FC Koln
64.8%
Most: M'gladbach
29.7%
FC Koln Over 13.2
59.4%
M'gladbach Over 13.2
33.8%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
84.8%
Over 7.5
76.0%
Over 8.5
65.6%
Over 9.5
54.4%
Most: FC Koln
66.5%
Most: M'gladbach
23.6%
FC Koln Over 4.2
69.1%
M'gladbach Over 4.2
37.9%
Cards
Over 2.5
74.6%
Over 3.5
54.5%
Over 4.5
35.0%
Most: FC Koln
36.5%
Most: M'gladbach
42.5%
FC Koln Over 1.8
55.8%
M'gladbach Over 1.8
60.0%
FC Koln: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Gian-Luca Waldschmidt
3.66
1.69
0.7
38.2%
27.9%
18.1%
Said El Mala
3.54
1.43
0.59
60.0%
66.2%
31.5%
Ragnar Ache
2.8
0.98
0.37
47.1%
54.2%
21.4%
Mikey Moore
2.07
0.97
0
37.4%
26.4%
0.0%
Marius Bülter
2.21
0.94
0.36
44.3%
40.0%
20.1%
M'gladbach: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Tim Kleindienst
2.35
1.12
0.46
63.0%
61.8%
33.6%
Shuto Machino
2.39
1.05
0.46
40.4%
32.9%
20.3%
Hugo Bolin
2.86
0.95
0.32
41.0%
47.2%
16.3%
Robin Hack
2.35
0.92
0.17
46.7%
47.7%
11.0%
Wael Mohya
1.9
0.76
0.25
27.1%
18.8%
9.9%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
FC Koln clean sheet
25.4%
M'gladbach clean sheet
14.2%
FC Koln win to nil
21.2%
M'gladbach win to nil
10.1%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
50.9%
draw
22.9%
away
26.2%
double_chance
1X
73.8%
12
77.1%
X2
49.1%
dnb
home
66.0%
away
34.0%
btts
yes
64.1%
no
35.9%
clean_sheet
home
25.8%
away
14.2%
win_to_nil
home
21.6%
away
10.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1
21.3%
home_by_2
15.5%
home_by_3plus
14.0%
away_by_1
14.7%
away_by_2
7.5%
away_by_3plus
4.0%
correct_score
0-0
4.2%
0-1
4.5%
0-2
3.4%
0-3
1.5%
0-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-0
6.7%
1-1
10.2%
1-2
6.6%
1-3
3.0%
1-4
1.0%
1-5
0.3%
2-0
7.0%
2-1
9.4%
2-2
6.4%
2-3
2.9%
2-4
1.0%
2-5
0.3%
3-0
4.5%
3-1
6.1%
3-2
4.2%
3-3
1.9%
3-4
0.6%
3-5
0.2%
4-0
2.2%
4-1
3.0%
4-2
2.0%
4-3
0.9%
4-4
0.3%
4-5
0.1%
5-0
0.9%
5-1
1.2%
5-2
0.8%
5-3
0.4%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
other
1.8%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
10.2%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
95.9%
under_0.5
4.2%
over_1.5
84.7%
under_1.5
15.3%
over_2.5
64.2%
under_2.5
35.8%
over_3.5
42.1%
under_3.5
57.9%
over_4.5
23.9%
under_4.5
76.1%
over_5.5
11.8%
under_5.5
88.2%
odd_even
odd
49.0%
even
51.0%
team_home
over_0.5
85.8%
under_0.5
14.2%
over_1.5
58.0%
under_1.5
42.0%
over_2.5
31.0%
under_2.5
69.0%
team_away
over_0.5
74.2%
under_0.5
25.8%
over_1.5
39.3%
under_1.5
60.7%
over_2.5
15.6%
under_2.5
84.4%
most
home
50.9%
draw
22.9%
away
26.2%
handicap
home_-2.5
14.0%
away_+2.5
86.0%
home_-1.5
29.6%
away_+1.5
70.4%
home_-0.5
50.9%
away_+0.5
49.1%
home_+0.5
73.8%
away_-0.5
26.2%
home_+1.5
88.5%
away_-1.5
11.5%
home_+2.5
96.0%
away_-2.5
4.0%
total_exact
exact_0
4.2%
exact_1
11.1%
exact_2
20.5%
exact_3
22.1%
exact_4
18.3%
exact_5
12.1%
exact_6
6.7%
exact_7plus
5.2%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
35.3%
draw
38.8%
away
25.9%
total
over_0.5
74.4%
under_0.5
25.6%
over_1.5
39.5%
under_1.5
60.5%
over_2.5
15.7%
under_2.5
84.3%
btts
yes
24.1%
no
75.9%
total_exact
exact_0
25.6%
exact_1
34.9%
exact_2
23.8%
exact_3
10.8%
exact_4plus
4.9%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
41.7%
draw
31.4%
away
26.9%
total
over_0.5
85.0%
under_0.5
15.0%
over_1.5
56.5%
under_1.5
43.5%
over_2.5
29.5%
under_2.5
70.5%
btts
yes
36.8%
no
63.2%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
28.0%
H/D
5.0%
H/A
2.3%
D/H
16.2%
D/D
12.2%
D/A
10.4%
A/H
3.6%
A/D
5.4%
A/A
16.9%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
76.6%
under_7.5
23.4%
over_8.5
65.7%
under_8.5
34.3%
over_9.5
53.8%
under_9.5
46.2%
over_10.5
42.1%
under_10.5
57.9%
over_11.5
31.4%
under_11.5
68.6%
over_12.5
22.3%
under_12.5
77.7%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
77.4%
under_3.5
22.6%
over_4.5
63.1%
under_4.5
36.9%
over_5.5
48.0%
under_5.5
52.0%
team_away
over_3.5
61.4%
under_3.5
38.6%
over_4.5
44.2%
under_4.5
55.8%
over_5.5
29.2%
under_5.5
70.8%
most
home
57.4%
draw
10.3%
away
32.3%
handicap
home_-3.5
26.8%
away_+3.5
73.2%
home_-1.5
46.6%
away_+1.5
53.4%
home_-0.5
57.4%
away_+0.5
42.6%
home_+0.5
67.7%
away_-0.5
32.3%
home_+1.5
76.7%
away_-1.5
23.3%
home_+3.5
89.8%
away_-3.5
10.2%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
73.7%
under_22.5
26.3%
over_24.5
62.5%
under_24.5
37.5%
over_26.5
50.5%
under_26.5
49.5%
over_28.5
38.7%
under_28.5
61.3%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
81.0%
under_10.5
19.0%
over_12.5
67.1%
under_12.5
32.9%
over_14.5
51.5%
under_14.5
48.5%
team_away
over_10.5
59.9%
under_10.5
40.1%
over_12.5
41.9%
under_12.5
58.1%
over_14.5
26.6%
under_14.5
73.4%
most
home
64.8%
draw
5.5%
away
29.7%
handicap
home_-4.5
40.9%
away_+4.5
59.1%
home_-2.5
53.0%
away_+2.5
47.0%
home_-0.5
64.8%
away_+0.5
35.2%
home_+0.5
70.3%
away_-0.5
29.7%
home_+2.5
79.9%
away_-2.5
20.1%
home_+4.5
87.3%
away_-4.5
12.7%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
84.8%
under_6.5
15.2%
over_7.5
76.0%
under_7.5
24.0%
over_8.5
65.6%
under_8.5
34.4%
over_9.5
54.4%
under_9.5
45.6%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
82.0%
under_3.5
18.0%
over_4.5
69.1%
under_4.5
30.9%
over_5.5
54.7%
under_5.5
45.3%
team_away
over_3.5
55.7%
under_3.5
44.3%
over_4.5
37.9%
under_4.5
62.1%
over_5.5
23.6%
under_5.5
76.4%
most
home
66.5%
draw
9.9%
away
23.6%
handicap
home_-2.5
44.0%
away_+2.5
56.0%
home_-0.5
66.5%
away_+0.5
33.5%
home_+0.5
76.4%
away_-0.5
23.6%
home_+2.5
90.4%
away_-2.5
9.6%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
74.6%
under_2.5
25.4%
over_3.5
54.5%
under_3.5
45.5%
over_4.5
35.0%
under_4.5
65.0%
over_5.5
19.8%
under_5.5
80.2%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
55.8%
under_1.5
44.2%
over_2.5
28.8%
under_2.5
71.2%
team_away
over_1.5
60.0%
under_1.5
40.0%
over_2.5
32.9%
under_2.5
67.1%
most
home
36.6%
draw
21.0%
away
42.5%
handicap
home_-1.5
19.2%
away_+1.5
80.8%
home_-0.5
36.6%
away_+0.5
63.4%
home_+0.5
57.5%
away_-0.5
42.5%
home_+1.5
76.2%
away_-1.5
23.8%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
45.8%
under_20.5
54.2%
over_22.5
33.9%
under_22.5
66.1%
over_24.5
23.8%
under_24.5
76.2%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
46.6%
under_9.5
53.4%
over_11.5
29.8%
under_11.5
70.2%
over_13.5
17.3%
under_13.5
82.7%
team_away
over_9.5
56.4%
under_9.5
43.6%
over_11.5
39.2%
under_11.5
60.8%
over_13.5
25.0%
under_13.5
75.0%
most
home
39.9%
draw
6.5%
away
53.6%
handicap
home_-3.5
22.6%
away_+3.5
77.4%
home_-0.5
39.9%
away_+0.5
60.2%
home_+2.5
59.5%
away_-2.5
40.5%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
18.3%
no
81.7%
home
yes
6.1%
no
93.9%
away
yes
13.0%
no
87.0%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Bundesliga
FC Koln
M'gladbach