Bundesliga
FC Koln vs 
M'gladbach Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 52.3%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 76.6% for over 7.5 to 22.3% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.8%. On the corner count, FC Koln are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 57.4%, with a level count at 10.3%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 76.6% | 23.4% |
| 8.5 corners | 65.7% | 34.3% |
| 9.5 corners | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| 10.5 corners | 42.1% | 57.9% |
| 11.5 corners | 31.4% | 68.6% |
| 12.5 corners | 22.3% | 77.7% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
77.4%
63.1%
48.0%
61.4%
44.2%
29.2%
Corner handicap
| FC Koln line | FC Koln | M'gladbach |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 26.8% | 73.2% |
| -1.5 | 46.6% | 53.4% |
| -0.5 | 57.4% | 42.6% |
| +0.5 | 67.7% | 32.3% |
Corners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for FC Koln.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
53.8%Over 9.5 corners63.1%FC Koln over 4.5 corners44.2%M'gladbach over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalFor the team lines, FC Koln over 4.5 corners sits at 63.1% and M'gladbach at 44.2%.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in FC Koln vs M'gladbach?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 53.8% for FC Koln vs M'gladbach.
Which team will win the corner count in FC Koln vs M'gladbach?
The model rates FC Koln to win the corner count at 57.4%, with a level count at 10.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 23,762 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Bundesliga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
