AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 2 Nov 2026

Primeira Liga
EstrelaEstrelaDLLLL
Sun, 8 Nov 20268/1120:30UK
BenficaBenficaWWLWW

Estrela vs Benfica corners prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined54.8%
Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined45.2%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners45.2%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Benfica.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 67.9% 32.1%
8.5 corners 56.5% 43.5%
9.5 corners 45.2% 54.8%
10.5 corners 34.7% 65.3%
11.5 corners 25.6% 74.4%
12.5 corners 18.2% 81.9%

Who wins the corner count

Estrela
41.7%
Level
10.4%
Benfica
47.9%

Team corners lines

Estrela

Over 3.5
60.9%
Over 4.5
45.2%
Over 5.5
31.5%

Benfica

Over 3.5
65.2%
Over 4.5
50.0%
Over 5.5
36.0%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Estrela's; Benfica gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Estrela line Estrela Benfica
-1.5 31.9% 68.1%
-0.5 41.7% 58.3%
+0.5 52.1% 47.9%
+1.5 62.2% 37.8%
EstrelaEstrela

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Estrela at home and Benfica away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

BenficaBenfica
Statistic
Estrela
Benfica
Corners won per game at this venue
5.0
4.5

Corners conceded per game at this venue
5.0
2.5

First-half corners won per game
1.9
4.6

Second-half corners won per game
2.4
3.1

Matches with more corners than the opponent
50.0%
87.5%

Matches with corner data
8
8

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0096Calibration error
51,077Matches graded

In 21,999 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 2 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✓ 52.5%✓ 50.2%✗ 50.6%✓ 56.9%✗ 50.6%✓ 53.7%✗ 51.8%✓ 62.7%✗ 61.2%✓ 61.5%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Liverpool vs Arsenal2026-11-01Over 9.5 52.5%Hit
Union Berlin vs FC Koln2026-11-01Under 9.5 50.2%Hit
Ein Frankfurt vs Hamburg2026-11-01Under 9.5 50.6%Miss
Getafe vs Sevilla2026-11-01Under 9.5 56.9%Hit
Santander vs Real Madrid2026-11-01Under 9.5 50.6%Miss
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 45.2%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 67.9% for over 7.5 to 18.2% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.2%. Head to head on corners, Benfica are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 47.9%, with a level count at 10.4%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Estrela over 4.5 corners sits at 45.2% and Benfica at 50.0%. This season Estrela have averaged 4.3 corners won a game and Benfica 7.8.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

45.2%Over 9.5 corners
47.9%Most corners: Benfica
45.2%Estrela over 4.5 corners
50.0%Benfica over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 45.2% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderBenfica are the pick to win the corner count at 47.9%, corners follow pressure, and pressure follows the side with the ball in the final third.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 45.2%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
EstrelaEstrela

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

BenficaBenfica
Statistic
Estrela
Benfica
corners won per game
4.3
7.8

corners conceded per game
4.4
2.3

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Estrela vs Benfica?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 45.2% for Estrela vs Benfica.
Which team will win the corner count in Estrela vs Benfica?
The model rates Benfica to win the corner count at 47.9%, with a level count at 10.4%.
How many corners do Estrela and Benfica average this season?
Estrela have won 4.3 corners a game this season and Benfica 7.8.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Corner predictions today

Related

Primeira LigaEstrela fixtures and statsBenfica fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.