AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 1 Nov 2026

Primeira Liga
FamalicaoFamalicaoDDWLW
Fri, 6 Nov 20266/1120:45UK
AroucaAroucaDLDWW

Famalicao vs Arouca corners prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined55.5%
Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined44.5%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners44.5%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Famalicao.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 67.4% 32.6%
8.5 corners 55.9% 44.1%
9.5 corners 44.5% 55.5%
10.5 corners 34.0% 66.0%
11.5 corners 24.9% 75.1%
12.5 corners 17.6% 82.4%

Who wins the corner count

Famalicao
56.9%
Level
10.0%
Arouca
33.0%

Team corners lines

Famalicao

Over 3.5
70.5%
Over 4.5
56.0%
Over 5.5
42.0%

Arouca

Over 3.5
53.7%
Over 4.5
37.6%
Over 5.5
24.6%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Famalicao's; Arouca gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Famalicao line Famalicao Arouca
-3.5 27.3% 72.7%
-1.5 46.5% 53.5%
-0.5 56.9% 43.1%
+0.5 67.0% 33.0%
FamalicaoFamalicao

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Famalicao at home and Arouca away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

AroucaArouca
Statistic
Famalicao
Arouca
Corners won per game at this venue
5.8
2.0

Corners conceded per game at this venue
2.8
7.3

First-half corners won per game
3.1
1.8

Second-half corners won per game
2.6
1.4

Matches with more corners than the opponent
50.0%
25.0%

Matches with corner data
8
8

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0096Calibration error
50,949Matches graded

In 21,935 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 1 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 56.0%✗ 59.8%✓ 62.5%✓ 59.6%✓ 61.1%✗ 61.7%✓ 62.6%✓ 60.3%✗ 61.3%✗ 60.6%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Frosinone vs Lecce2026-10-29Under 9.5 56.0%Miss
Fiorentina vs Atalanta2026-10-29Under 9.5 59.8%Miss
Milan vs Bologna2026-10-28Under 9.5 62.5%Hit
Parma vs Udinese2026-10-28Under 9.5 59.6%Hit
Venezia vs Inter2026-10-28Under 9.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 44.5%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 67.4% for over 7.5 to 17.6% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.5%. Between the two sides, Famalicao are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 56.9%, with a level count at 10.0%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Famalicao over 4.5 corners sits at 56.0% and Arouca at 37.6%. This season Famalicao have averaged 5.8 corners won a game and Arouca 3.1.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.

44.5%Over 9.5 corners
56.9%Most corners: Famalicao
56.0%Famalicao over 4.5 corners
37.6%Arouca over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 44.5% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderFamalicao are the pick to win the corner count at 56.9%, the count usually goes the way of the side doing the attacking.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 44.5%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
FamalicaoFamalicao

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

AroucaArouca
Statistic
Famalicao
Arouca
corners won per game
5.8
3.1

corners conceded per game
3.9
5.4

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Famalicao vs Arouca?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 44.5% for Famalicao vs Arouca.
Which team will win the corner count in Famalicao vs Arouca?
The model rates Famalicao to win the corner count at 56.9%, with a level count at 10.0%.
How many corners do Famalicao and Arouca average this season?
Famalicao have won 5.8 corners a game this season and Arouca 3.1.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Corner predictions today

Related

Primeira LigaFamalicao fixtures and statsArouca fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.