EstrelaEstrelaDLLLL
BenficaBenficaWWLWWEstrela vs Benfica cards prediction
Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Model read
A clear lean on the model's numbers.
Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.
Conviction: Strong
Over 3.5 cards70.7%
Cards (bookings)
Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.
Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Estrela vs Benfica. The model leans toward Estrela for the most cards.
Total cards
Both teams combined.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 85.8% | 14.2% |
| 3.5 cards | 70.7% | 29.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| 5.5 cards | 35.2% | 64.8% |
Who picks up more cards
Estrela
BenficaTeam cards lines
Estrela
Benfica
Card handicap
The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Estrela's; Benfica gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.
| Estrela line | Estrela | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 29.1% | 70.9% |
| -0.5 | 46.7% | 53.3% |
| +0.5 | 65.2% | 34.8% |
| +1.5 | 80.5% | 19.5% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 84.3% | 15.7% |
| 22.5 fouls | 74.6% | 25.4% |
| 24.5 fouls | 63.0% | 37.0% |
Card trends
2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Estrela at home and Benfica away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.
Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 8,539 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 2 Nov 2026.
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 70.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 85.8% for over 2.5 to 35.2% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.6%. Between the two sides, Estrela are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.7%, with a level count at 18.5%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.
In-depth analysis
By team, Estrela over 1.5 cards sits at 72.7% and Benfica at 65.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 19.0% (Estrela 9.9%, Benfica 10.2%).
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
This season
2026/27 · Recorded results.
Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
FAQ
How many cards in Estrela vs Benfica?
Will there be a red card in Estrela vs Benfica?
Which team will pick up more cards in Estrela vs Benfica?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Primeira Liga, Cards
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
