AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 2 Nov 2026

Primeira Liga
AlvercaAlvercaLWWWL
Sat, 7 Nov 20267/1118:00UK
Casa PiaCasa PiaLWLWL

Alverca vs Casa Pia corners prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined54.4%
Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined45.6%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners45.6%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Corners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Alverca.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 68.2% 31.8%
8.5 corners 56.9% 43.1%
9.5 corners 45.6% 54.4%
10.5 corners 35.0% 65.0%
11.5 corners 25.9% 74.1%
12.5 corners 18.4% 81.6%

Who wins the corner count

Alverca
57.8%
Level
9.9%
Casa Pia
32.4%

Team corners lines

Alverca

Over 3.5
71.4%
Over 4.5
57.2%
Over 5.5
43.3%

Casa Pia

Over 3.5
53.6%
Over 4.5
37.6%
Over 5.5
24.7%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Alverca's; Casa Pia gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Alverca line Alverca Casa Pia
-3.5 28.3% 71.7%
-1.5 47.4% 52.6%
-0.5 57.8% 42.2%
+0.5 67.6% 32.4%
AlvercaAlverca

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Alverca at home and Casa Pia away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Casa PiaCasa Pia
Statistic
Alverca
Casa Pia
Corners won per game at this venue
5.5
4.5

Corners conceded per game at this venue
2.3
7.3

First-half corners won per game
1.9
1.8

Second-half corners won per game
2.9
2.3

Matches with more corners than the opponent
62.5%
37.5%

Matches with corner data
8
8

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0096Calibration error
51,077Matches graded

In 21,999 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 2 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✓ 52.5%✓ 50.2%✗ 50.6%✓ 56.9%✗ 50.6%✓ 53.7%✗ 51.8%✓ 62.7%✗ 61.2%✓ 61.5%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Liverpool vs Arsenal2026-11-01Over 9.5 52.5%Hit
Union Berlin vs FC Koln2026-11-01Under 9.5 50.2%Hit
Ein Frankfurt vs Hamburg2026-11-01Under 9.5 50.6%Miss
Getafe vs Sevilla2026-11-01Under 9.5 56.9%Hit
Santander vs Real Madrid2026-11-01Under 9.5 50.6%Miss
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 45.6%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 68.2% for over 7.5 to 18.4% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.6%. Between the two sides, Alverca are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 57.8%, with a level count at 9.9%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Alverca over 4.5 corners sits at 57.2% and Casa Pia at 37.6%. This season Alverca have averaged 4.8 corners won a game and Casa Pia 4.0.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

45.6%Over 9.5 corners
57.8%Most corners: Alverca
57.2%Alverca over 4.5 corners
37.6%Casa Pia over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 45.6% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderAlverca are the pick to win the corner count at 57.8%, territory tends to follow the side forcing the play.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 45.6%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
AlvercaAlverca

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Casa PiaCasa Pia
Statistic
Alverca
Casa Pia
corners won per game
4.8
4.0

corners conceded per game
3.6
6.3

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Alverca vs Casa Pia?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 45.6% for Alverca vs Casa Pia.
Which team will win the corner count in Alverca vs Casa Pia?
The model rates Alverca to win the corner count at 57.8%, with a level count at 9.9%.
How many corners do Alverca and Casa Pia average this season?
Alverca have won 4.8 corners a game this season and Casa Pia 4.0.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Corner predictions today

Related

Primeira LigaAlverca fixtures and statsCasa Pia fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.