Primeira Liga
Estoril vs 
Casa Pia Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 43.4%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 55.6% for over 22.5 to 22.5% for over 28.5, with over 22.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.6%. Between the two sides, Estoril are the model’s pick to have more shots at 63.0%, with a level count at 5.8%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 55.6% | 44.4% |
| 24.5 shots | 43.4% | 56.6% |
| 26.5 shots | 32.1% | 67.9% |
| 28.5 shots | 22.5% | 77.5% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
68.9%
52.8%
37.3%
46.8%
30.0%
17.4%
Shot handicap
| Estoril line | Estoril | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 38.5% | 61.5% |
| -2.5 | 50.8% | 49.2% |
| -0.5 | 63.0% | 37.0% |
| +0.5 | 68.8% | 31.2% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 70.7% | 29.3% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 45.2% | 54.8% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 33.4% | 66.6% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
12.5Estoril shots per game14.3Estoril shots faced per game10.2Casa Pia shots per game16.0Casa Pia shots faced per gameTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Estoril.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
43.4%Over 24.5 shots52.8%Estoril over 12.5 shots30.0%Casa Pia over 12.5 shots58.1%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Estoril over 12.5 shots sits at 52.8% and Casa Pia at 30.0%. This season Estoril have averaged 12.5 shots a game and Casa Pia 10.2.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Estoril vs Casa Pia?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 43.4% for Estoril vs Casa Pia.
Which team will have more shots in Estoril vs Casa Pia?
The model rates Estoril to take more shots at 63.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 16,705 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Primeira Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
