Primeira Liga
Estoril vs 
Casa Pia Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Home or Draw at 79.2%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. For context, Estoril are favoured at 53.5%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.0 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet means a draw gives you your stake back. So we take the draw out and share what is left between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Estoril by 1 | 24.3% |
| Estoril by 2 | 16.7% |
| Estoril by 3+ | 12.6% |
| Casa Pia by 1 | 13.5% |
| Casa Pia by 2 | 5.4% |
| Casa Pia by 3+ | 1.9% |
| Draw | 25.7% |
Goal handicap
| Estoril line | Estoril | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 12.6% | 87.4% |
| -1.5 | 29.3% | 70.7% |
| -0.5 | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| +0.5 | 79.2% | 20.8% |
This season (2026/27)
0.3Estoril goals scored per game1.3Estoril goals conceded per game0.2Casa Pia goals scored per game2.5Casa Pia goals conceded per gameTwo of three outcomes covered, lower odds, higher strike rate. The highest-probability cover is Estoril or draw on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
49.7%Both Teams to Score47.8%Over 2.5 goalsOn the result, Estoril are favoured at 53.5%. How the game flows often matters more here than the pre-match favourite.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Estoril 1 · 3 draws · Casa Pia 1 · 2.0 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in Estoril vs Casa Pia?
Home or Draw is the highest-probability double chance for Estoril vs Casa Pia at 79.2%.
What is the draw no bet probability in Estoril vs Casa Pia?
With the draw taken out, the model rates Estoril at 72.0% and Casa Pia at 28.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 40,105 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Double Chance actually happened 73.4% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
Our most recent Double Chance calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Primeira Liga, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
