Porto vs Benfica: model prediction
Primeira Liga
PortoWWWWW
BenficaWWWWW
Over 1.5 goals
Porto or draw
Draw or Benfica
Fairly pricedConservative EV -0.015 <= 0.
Win probability · fair 2.54
Top signals
Model read
The probabilities barely separate Porto and Benfica on 20 September 2026: Porto nose ahead at 39%. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Notably, the model is warmer on Porto than the market (35%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. 2) No strong lean on goals (48% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 3) Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 1 wins for Porto, 2 draws and 2 for Benfica, averaging 3.8 goals a game. The run in: Porto arrive W6 D0 L0, Benfica W5 D1 L0. Discipline says sit it out: conservative EV -0.015 <= 0.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
39.3%+4.3%
27.6%-0.1%
33.1%-4.1%
conservative EV -0.015 <= 0
Goals
Corners
Shots
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
Discipline: Fairly priced. Conservative EV -0.015 <= 0.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Porto 1 · 2 draws · Benfica 2 · 3.8 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
PortoBenfica50.0%100.0%
33.3%50.0%
66.7%50.0%
League averages this season: 2.87 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 59% · BTTS in 53%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
| Over 22.5 | 57.4% | Over 24.5 | 45.3% | Over 26.5 | 33.9% | Over 28.5 | 24.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Porto | 55.7% | Most: Benfica | 38.3% | ||||
| Porto Over 13.2 | 41.1% | Benfica Over 13.2 | 29.1% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 70.5% | Over 7.5 | 57.9% | Over 8.5 | 45.0% | Over 9.5 | 33.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Porto | 48.1% | Most: Benfica | 38.8% | ||||
| Porto Over 4.2 | 43.4% | Benfica Over 4.2 | 36.8% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 83.3% | Over 3.5 | 66.7% | Over 4.5 | 47.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Porto | 39.5% | Most: Benfica | 41.2% | ||
| Porto Over 1.8 | 65.9% | Benfica Over 1.8 | 66.9% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
| Porto clean sheet | 29.2% |
|---|---|
| Benfica clean sheet | 25.5% |
| Porto win to nil | 21.1% |
| Benfica win to nil | 17.4% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 39.3% | draw | 27.6% | away | 33.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 66.9% | 12 | 72.4% | X2 | 60.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 54.3% | away | 45.7% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 53.3% | no | 46.7% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 29.2% | away | 25.6% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 21.1% | away | 17.5% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 20.9% | home_by_2 | 11.8% | home_by_3plus | 6.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 18.8% | away_by_2 | 9.6% | away_by_3plus | 4.8% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.1% | 0-1 | 8.6% | 0-2 | 5.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.3% | 0-4 | 0.7% | 0-5 | 0.2% |
| 1-0 | 9.6% | 1-1 | 13.2% | 1-2 | 7.7% |
| 1-3 | 3.2% | 1-4 | 1.0% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 7.0% | 2-1 | 8.6% | 2-2 | 5.3% |
| 2-3 | 2.2% | 2-4 | 0.7% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 3.2% | 3-1 | 3.9% | 3-2 | 2.4% |
| 3-3 | 1.0% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 1.1% | 4-1 | 1.3% | 4-2 | 0.8% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.3% | 5-1 | 0.4% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.4% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.9% | under_0.5 | 8.1% | over_1.5 | 73.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 26.2% | over_2.5 | 48.0% | under_2.5 | 52.0% |
| over_3.5 | 26.3% | under_3.5 | 73.7% | over_4.5 | 12.2% |
| under_4.5 | 87.8% | over_5.5 | 4.9% | under_5.5 | 95.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.5% | even | 51.5% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 74.4% | under_0.5 | 25.6% | over_1.5 | 39.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 60.4% | over_2.5 | 15.8% | under_2.5 | 84.2% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 70.8% | under_0.5 | 29.2% | over_1.5 | 34.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 65.2% | over_2.5 | 12.7% | under_2.5 | 87.3% |
most
| home | 39.3% | draw | 27.6% | away | 33.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 6.7% | away_+2.5 | 93.3% | home_-1.5 | 18.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 81.5% | home_-0.5 | 39.3% | away_+0.5 | 60.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.9% | away_-0.5 | 33.1% | home_+1.5 | 85.7% |
| away_-1.5 | 14.3% | home_+2.5 | 95.3% | away_-2.5 | 4.8% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.1% | exact_1 | 18.1% | exact_2 | 25.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.7% | exact_4 | 14.1% | exact_5 | 7.3% |
| exact_6 | 3.2% | exact_7plus | 1.7% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 27.9% | draw | 44.9% | away | 27.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 65.6% | under_0.5 | 34.4% | over_1.5 | 28.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 71.2% | over_2.5 | 9.3% | under_2.5 | 90.7% |
btts
| yes | 17.1% | no | 82.9% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 34.4% | exact_1 | 36.7% | exact_2 | 19.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 7.0% | exact_4plus | 2.3% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 36.1% | draw | 36.8% | away | 27.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 77.4% | under_0.5 | 22.7% | over_1.5 | 43.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 56.3% | over_2.5 | 18.7% | under_2.5 | 81.3% |
btts
| yes | 27.2% | no | 72.8% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 21.7% | H/D | 4.5% | H/A | 1.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 16.2% | D/D | 16.5% | D/A | 12.2% |
| A/H | 2.7% | A/D | 5.5% | A/A | 19.0% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 69.7% | under_7.5 | 30.3% | over_8.5 | 58.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 41.6% | over_9.5 | 47.1% | under_9.5 | 52.9% |
| over_10.5 | 36.4% | under_10.5 | 63.7% | over_11.5 | 27.0% |
| under_11.5 | 73.0% | over_12.5 | 19.3% | under_12.5 | 80.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 66.7% | under_3.5 | 33.3% | over_4.5 | 51.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 48.5% | over_5.5 | 37.4% | under_5.5 | 62.6% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 62.0% | under_3.5 | 38.0% | over_4.5 | 46.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 53.8% | over_5.5 | 32.4% | under_5.5 | 67.6% |
most
| home | 48.3% | draw | 10.3% | away | 41.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 20.9% | away_+3.5 | 79.1% | home_-1.5 | 38.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 61.8% | home_-0.5 | 48.3% | away_+0.5 | 51.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 58.6% | away_-0.5 | 41.4% | home_+1.5 | 68.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 31.7% | home_+3.5 | 83.8% | away_-3.5 | 16.2% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 57.4% | under_22.5 | 42.6% | over_24.5 | 45.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 54.7% | over_26.5 | 33.9% | under_26.5 | 66.1% |
| over_28.5 | 24.1% | under_28.5 | 75.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 65.6% | under_10.5 | 34.4% | over_12.5 | 49.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 51.0% | over_14.5 | 33.7% | under_14.5 | 66.3% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 53.8% | under_10.5 | 46.2% | over_12.5 | 36.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 63.4% | over_14.5 | 22.7% | under_14.5 | 77.3% |
most
| home | 55.7% | draw | 6.0% | away | 38.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 31.7% | away_+4.5 | 68.3% | home_-2.5 | 43.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 56.6% | home_-0.5 | 55.7% | away_+0.5 | 44.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 61.7% | away_-0.5 | 38.3% | home_+2.5 | 72.9% |
| away_-2.5 | 27.1% | home_+4.5 | 82.1% | away_-4.5 | 17.9% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 70.5% | under_6.5 | 29.5% | over_7.5 | 57.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 42.1% | over_8.5 | 45.0% | under_8.5 | 55.0% |
| over_9.5 | 33.2% | under_9.5 | 66.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 61.3% | under_3.5 | 38.7% | over_4.5 | 43.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 56.6% | over_5.5 | 28.0% | under_5.5 | 72.0% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 54.9% | under_3.5 | 45.1% | over_4.5 | 36.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 63.2% | over_5.5 | 22.3% | under_5.5 | 77.7% |
most
| home | 48.1% | draw | 13.1% | away | 38.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 24.1% | away_+2.5 | 75.9% | home_-0.5 | 48.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 51.9% | home_+0.5 | 61.2% | away_-0.5 | 38.8% |
| home_+2.5 | 82.7% | away_-2.5 | 17.3% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 83.3% | under_2.5 | 16.7% | over_3.5 | 66.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 33.3% | over_4.5 | 47.9% | under_4.5 | 52.1% |
| over_5.5 | 30.7% | under_5.5 | 69.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 65.9% | under_1.5 | 34.1% | over_2.5 | 39.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 60.8% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 66.9% | under_1.5 | 33.1% | over_2.5 | 40.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 59.6% |
most
| home | 39.5% | draw | 19.3% | away | 41.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 22.7% | away_+1.5 | 77.3% | home_-0.5 | 39.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 60.5% | home_+0.5 | 58.8% | away_-0.5 | 41.2% |
| home_+1.5 | 76.0% | away_-1.5 | 24.0% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 81.6% | under_20.5 | 18.4% | over_22.5 | 71.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 29.0% | over_24.5 | 58.7% | under_24.5 | 41.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 85.4% | under_9.5 | 14.6% | over_11.5 | 71.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 28.4% | over_13.5 | 54.8% | under_13.5 | 45.2% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 69.1% | under_9.5 | 30.9% | over_11.5 | 49.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 50.1% | over_13.5 | 31.9% | under_13.5 | 68.1% |
most
| home | 62.9% | draw | 6.0% | away | 31.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 43.6% | away_+3.5 | 56.4% | home_-0.5 | 62.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 37.1% | home_+2.5 | 79.4% | away_-2.5 | 20.6% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 18.7% | no | 81.3% |
|---|
home
| yes | 10.4% | no | 89.6% |
|---|
away
| yes | 9.3% | no | 90.8% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).
More: Porto predictions · Benfica predictions · Primeira Liga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
Explore this match
Markets
