AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Ligue 2
DunkerqueDunkerqueDWLLW
Full time1-1Fri, 23 Oct 202623/1019:00UK
MetzMetzWLDLW

Dunkerque 1-1 Metz cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined53%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined47%

Result

Dunkerque1-1Metz
3 yellow cardsDunkerque 1, Metz 2
1 red cardsDunkerque 1, Metz 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 53.0% and it missed (3 in the match). We called No at 83.7% and it missed (1 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards53.0%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Mickael Leleu

Recorded match referee.

Mickael Leleu in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 22 5
Goals 2.23 3.00
Yellow cards 3.09 2.80
Red cards 0.05 0.20
Corners 10.0 9.6
Fouls 29.0 34.0
Both teams scored 50% 80%
Over 2.5 goals 32% 40%
Home wins 41% 40%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
23 Oct 2026 Dunkerque vs Metz 1-1 2 Yes 5 1 6 29
9 Oct 2026 Sochaux vs Boulogne 1-1 2 Yes 3 0 12 39
14 Sep 2026 Red Star vs Metz 1-0 1 No 2 0 11 39
29 Aug 2026 Guingamp vs Nantes 3-3 6 Yes 2 0 6 33
14 Aug 2026 St Etienne vs Clermont 3-1 4 Yes 2 0 13 30
9 May 2026 Clermont vs Guingamp 1-0 1 No 1 0 7 18
17 Apr 2026 Le Mans vs Clermont 1-0 1 No 2 0 10 32
4 Apr 2026 Montpellier vs Troyes 2-2 4 Yes 4 0 14 33
20 Mar 2026 Boulogne vs Nancy 0-0 0 No 5 0 8 31
9 Mar 2026 Dunkerque vs Reims 1-1 2 Yes 4 0 8 25

Mickael Leleu referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Dunkerque vs Metz. Slightly more cards are projected for Metz for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 73.4% 26.6%
3.5 cards 53.0% 47.0%
4.5 cards 33.5% 66.5%
5.5 cards 18.7% 81.3%

Who picks up more cards

Dunkerque
35.9%
Level
21.2%
Metz
43.0%

Team cards lines

Dunkerque

Over 1.5
54.3%
Over 2.5
27.4%

Metz

Over 1.5
59.4%
Over 2.5
32.3%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Dunkerque's; Metz gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Dunkerque line Dunkerque Metz
-1.5 18.6% 81.4%
-0.5 35.9% 64.1%
+0.5 57.0% 43.0%
+1.5 76.0% 24.0%

Red card

Any red card16.3%
Dunkerque red card5.4%
Metz red card11.5%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 90.6% 9.4%
22.5 fouls 82.6% 17.4%
24.5 fouls 71.6% 28.4%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 53.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 73.4% for over 2.5 to 18.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.0%. Between the two sides, Metz are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.0%, with a level count at 21.2%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Dunkerque over 1.5 cards sits at 54.3% and Metz at 59.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 16.3% (Dunkerque 5.4%, Metz 11.5%).

53.0%Over 3.5 cards
16.3%Any red card
43.0%Most cards: Metz
54.3%Dunkerque over 1.5 cards
59.4%Metz over 1.5 cards
82.6%Over 22.5 fouls

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 53.0% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 16.3%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianMetz are the pick to collect more cards at 43.0%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 53.0%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Dunkerque vs Metz?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 53.0% for Dunkerque vs Metz.
Will there be a red card in Dunkerque vs Metz?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 16.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Dunkerque vs Metz?
Before kickoff, the model rated Metz to pick up more cards at 43.0%, with a level count at 21.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Ligue 2, Cards

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Cards predictions today

Related

Ligue 2Dunkerque fixtures and statsMetz fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.