AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Championship
DerbyDerbyDDLLD
Tue, 3 Nov 20263/1119:45UK
NorwichNorwichLLLLW

Derby vs Norwich cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined56.5%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined43.5%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards56.5%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Derby vs Norwich. The model leans toward Norwich for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 76.1% 23.9%
3.5 cards 56.5% 43.5%
4.5 cards 37.0% 63.0%
5.5 cards 21.4% 78.6%

Who picks up more cards

Derby
38.2%
Level
20.7%
Norwich
41.1%

Team cards lines

Derby

Over 1.5
58.3%
Over 2.5
31.2%

Norwich

Over 1.5
60.3%
Over 2.5
33.2%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Derby's; Norwich gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Derby line Derby Norwich
-1.5 20.7% 79.4%
-0.5 38.2% 61.8%
+0.5 58.9% 41.1%
+1.5 77.1% 22.9%

Red card

Any red card7.7%
Derby red card4.1%
Norwich red card3.7%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 62.4% 37.6%
22.5 fouls 46.8% 53.2%
24.5 fouls 32.2% 67.8%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Derby O Langford 2 1.5 1.5
Derby S Martin 2 6.5 3.5
Norwich A Kitchen 2 3.0 1.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

DerbyDerby

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Derby at home and Norwich away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

NorwichNorwich
Statistic
Derby
Norwich
Yellow cards per game
2.3
2.2

First-half yellow cards per game
0.4
0.8

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.8
1.4

Matches with card data
4
6
Red cards this season
·
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 56.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 76.1% for over 2.5 to 21.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 56.5%. On the card count, Norwich are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.1%, with a level count at 20.7%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Derby over 1.5 cards sits at 58.3% and Norwich at 60.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 7.7% (Derby 4.1%, Norwich 3.7%). Derby’s most frequent referee this season, O Langford, has averaged 1.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.

56.5%Over 3.5 cards
7.7%Any red card
41.1%Most cards: Norwich
58.3%Derby over 1.5 cards
60.3%Norwich over 1.5 cards
46.8%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 56.5% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherO Langford, Derby’s most frequent referee this season, averages 1.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 7.7%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianNorwich are the pick to collect more cards at 41.1%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
DerbyDerby

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

NorwichNorwich
Statistic
Derby
Norwich
fouls per game
13.0
11.3

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Derby vs Norwich?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 56.5% for Derby vs Norwich.
Will there be a red card in Derby vs Norwich?
The model rates a red card for either side at 7.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Derby vs Norwich?
The model rates Norwich to pick up more cards at 41.1%, with a level count at 20.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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ChampionshipDerby fixtures and statsNorwich fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.