AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 5 Nov 2026

Championship
DerbyDerbyLLDLL
Fri, 6 Nov 20266/1120:00UK
BoltonBoltonWDLLW

Derby vs Bolton corners prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined56.3%
Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined43.7%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners56.3%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Corners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Derby.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 78.3% 21.7%
8.5 corners 67.9% 32.1%
9.5 corners 56.3% 43.7%
10.5 corners 44.6% 55.4%
11.5 corners 33.8% 66.3%
12.5 corners 24.4% 75.6%

Who wins the corner count

Derby
57.3%
Level
10.2%
Bolton
32.5%

Team corners lines

Derby

Over 3.5
78.5%
Over 4.5
64.5%
Over 5.5
49.6%

Bolton

Over 3.5
63.1%
Over 4.5
46.0%
Over 5.5
30.9%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Derby's; Bolton gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Derby line Derby Bolton
-3.5 26.9% 73.1%
-1.5 46.6% 53.4%
-0.5 57.3% 42.7%
+0.5 67.5% 32.5%
DerbyDerby

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Derby at home and Bolton away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

BoltonBolton
Statistic
Derby
Bolton
Corners won per game at this venue
6.7
4.0

Corners conceded per game at this venue
5.3
5.8

First-half corners won per game
1.8
2.2

Second-half corners won per game
3.9
3.4

Matches with more corners than the opponent
53.8%
38.5%

Matches with corner data
13
13

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.3%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0096Calibration error
54,318Matches graded

In 26,171 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.4% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 5 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✓ 55.0%✗ 53.2%✗ 53.7%✗ 53.7%✓ 58.3%✗ 53.6%✗ 54.2%✓ 54.3%✗ 58.4%✗ 52.2%
3 of 10 recent calls hit.
Cardiff vs West Ham2026-11-04Over 9.5 55.0%Hit
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough2026-11-04Over 9.5 53.2%Miss
Bristol City vs Wolves2026-11-04Over 9.5 53.7%Miss
Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen2026-11-04Over 9.5 53.7%Miss
Blackburn vs Stoke2026-11-03Over 9.5 58.3%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 56.3%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 78.3% for over 7.5 to 24.4% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.6%. On the corner count, Derby are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 57.3%, with a level count at 10.2%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Derby over 4.5 corners sits at 64.5% and Bolton at 46.0%. This season Derby have averaged 5.6 corners won a game and Bolton 5.5.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

56.3%Over 9.5 corners
57.3%Most corners: Derby
64.5%Derby over 4.5 corners
46.0%Bolton over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 56.3% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderDerby are the pick to win the corner count at 57.3%, corners follow pressure, and pressure follows the side with the ball in the final third.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 10.5 corners: over sits at 44.6%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
DerbyDerby

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

BoltonBolton
Statistic
Derby
Bolton
corners won per game
5.6
5.5

corners conceded per game
5.3
5.6

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Derby vs Bolton?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 56.3% for Derby vs Bolton.
Which team will win the corner count in Derby vs Bolton?
The model rates Derby to win the corner count at 57.3%, with a level count at 10.2%.
How many corners do Derby and Bolton average this season?
Derby have won 5.6 corners a game this season and Bolton 5.5.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Corner predictions today

Related

ChampionshipDerby fixtures and statsBolton fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.