AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 5 Nov 2026

Championship
CardiffCardiffWDWLD
Sat, 7 Nov 20267/1115:00UK
BurnleyBurnleyDLLDD

Cardiff vs Burnley corners prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined53.8%
Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined46.3%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners53.8%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Corners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Cardiff.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 76.5% 23.5%
8.5 corners 65.6% 34.4%
9.5 corners 53.8% 46.3%
10.5 corners 42.0% 58.0%
11.5 corners 31.3% 68.7%
12.5 corners 22.3% 77.7%

Who wins the corner count

Cardiff
57.7%
Level
10.3%
Burnley
32.0%

Team corners lines

Cardiff

Over 3.5
77.6%
Over 4.5
63.3%
Over 5.5
48.2%

Burnley

Over 3.5
61.2%
Over 4.5
43.9%
Over 5.5
28.9%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Cardiff's; Burnley gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Cardiff line Cardiff Burnley
-3.5 26.8% 73.2%
-1.5 46.9% 53.1%
-0.5 57.7% 42.3%
+0.5 68.0% 32.0%
CardiffCardiff

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Cardiff at home and Burnley away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

BurnleyBurnley
Statistic
Cardiff
Burnley
Corners won per game at this venue
7.3
4.5

Corners conceded per game at this venue
3.5
3.5

First-half corners won per game
2.8
2.2

Second-half corners won per game
3.9
2.5

Matches with more corners than the opponent
61.5%
46.2%

Matches with corner data
13
13

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.3%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0096Calibration error
54,318Matches graded

In 26,171 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.4% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 5 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✓ 55.0%✗ 53.2%✗ 53.7%✗ 53.7%✓ 58.3%✗ 53.6%✗ 54.2%✓ 54.3%✗ 58.4%✗ 52.2%
3 of 10 recent calls hit.
Cardiff vs West Ham2026-11-04Over 9.5 55.0%Hit
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough2026-11-04Over 9.5 53.2%Miss
Bristol City vs Wolves2026-11-04Over 9.5 53.7%Miss
Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen2026-11-04Over 9.5 53.7%Miss
Blackburn vs Stoke2026-11-03Over 9.5 58.3%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 53.8%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 76.5% for over 7.5 to 22.3% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.8%. Between the two sides, Cardiff are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 57.7%, with a level count at 10.3%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Cardiff over 4.5 corners sits at 63.3% and Burnley at 43.9%. This season Cardiff have averaged 6.7 corners won a game and Burnley 4.7.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

53.8%Over 9.5 corners
57.7%Most corners: Cardiff
63.3%Cardiff over 4.5 corners
43.9%Burnley over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 53.8% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderCardiff are the pick to win the corner count at 57.7%, corners follow pressure, and pressure follows the side with the ball in the final third.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 53.8%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
CardiffCardiff

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

BurnleyBurnley
Statistic
Cardiff
Burnley
corners won per game
6.7
4.7

corners conceded per game
4.9
4.4

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Cardiff vs Burnley?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 53.8% for Cardiff vs Burnley.
Which team will win the corner count in Cardiff vs Burnley?
The model rates Cardiff to win the corner count at 57.7%, with a level count at 10.3%.
How many corners do Cardiff and Burnley average this season?
Cardiff have won 6.7 corners a game this season and Burnley 4.7.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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ChampionshipCardiff fixtures and statsBurnley fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.