AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 4 Nov 2026

Championship
BirminghamBirminghamWWLWW
Sat, 7 Nov 20267/1115:00UK
SwanseaSwanseaWLLWL

Birmingham vs Swansea corners prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined55.1%
Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined44.9%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners55.1%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Birmingham.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 77.5% 22.5%
8.5 corners 66.8% 33.2%
9.5 corners 55.1% 44.9%
10.5 corners 43.3% 56.7%
11.5 corners 32.5% 67.5%
12.5 corners 23.3% 76.7%

Who wins the corner count

Birmingham
60.5%
Level
10.0%
Swansea
29.5%

Team corners lines

Birmingham

Over 3.5
79.6%
Over 4.5
65.9%
Over 5.5
51.0%

Swansea

Over 3.5
60.0%
Over 4.5
42.6%
Over 5.5
27.7%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Birmingham's; Swansea gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Birmingham line Birmingham Swansea
-3.5 29.3% 70.7%
-1.5 49.7% 50.3%
-0.5 60.5% 39.5%
+0.5 70.5% 29.5%
BirminghamBirmingham

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Birmingham at home and Swansea away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

SwanseaSwansea
Statistic
Birmingham
Swansea
Corners won per game at this venue
4.8
4.0

Corners conceded per game at this venue
3.7
6.5

First-half corners won per game
2.5
1.7

Second-half corners won per game
2.9
2.4

Matches with more corners than the opponent
61.5%
61.5%

Matches with corner data
13
13

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0097Calibration error
51,092Matches graded

In 24,085 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 4 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 54.2%✗ 52.9%✓ 60.9%✗ 54.6%✗ 52.1%✗ 50.1%✓ 57.5%✓ 57.1%✓ 63.9%✓ 62.0%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Newcastle vs Everton2026-11-02Over 9.5 54.2%Miss
La Coruna vs Osasuna2026-11-02Under 9.5 52.9%Miss
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina2026-11-02Under 9.5 60.9%Hit
Atalanta vs Parma2026-11-02Under 9.5 54.6%Miss
Lorient vs Brest2026-11-02Under 9.5 52.1%Miss
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 55.1%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 77.5% for over 7.5 to 23.3% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.1%. Head to head on corners, Birmingham are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 60.5%, with a level count at 10.0%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Birmingham over 4.5 corners sits at 65.9% and Swansea at 42.6%. This season Birmingham have averaged 5.3 corners won a game and Swansea 4.1.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

55.1%Over 9.5 corners
60.5%Most corners: Birmingham
65.9%Birmingham over 4.5 corners
42.6%Swansea over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 55.1% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderBirmingham are the pick to win the corner count at 60.5%, corners follow pressure, and pressure follows the side with the ball in the final third.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 55.1%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
BirminghamBirmingham

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

SwanseaSwansea
Statistic
Birmingham
Swansea
corners won per game
5.3
4.1

corners conceded per game
4.3
4.5

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Birmingham vs Swansea?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 55.1% for Birmingham vs Swansea.
Which team will win the corner count in Birmingham vs Swansea?
The model rates Birmingham to win the corner count at 60.5%, with a level count at 10.0%.
How many corners do Birmingham and Swansea average this season?
Birmingham have won 5.3 corners a game this season and Swansea 4.1.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Championship, Corners

Cardiff vs West Ham corners predictionWrexham vs Middlesbrough corners predictionBristol City vs Wolves corners predictionDerby vs Bolton corners predictionBristol City vs Norwich corners predictionPortsmouth vs Stoke corners prediction

Corner predictions today

Related

ChampionshipBirmingham fixtures and statsSwansea fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.