DerbyDerbyLLDLL
BoltonBoltonWDLLWDerby vs Bolton over / under 2.5 goals prediction
Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Model read
Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.
Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.
Conviction: Lean
Over 2.5 goals50.3%
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
Both teams combined. Over means more goals than the line, Under means fewer.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 92.6% | 7.4% |
| 1.5 goals | 75.5% | 24.5% |
| 2.5 goals | 50.3% | 49.7% |
| 3.5 goals | 28.3% | 71.7% |
| 4.5 goals | 13.5% | 86.5% |
| 5.5 goals | 5.6% | 94.4% |
Team goal lines
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 78.4% | 21.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 45.3% | 54.7% |
| 2.5 goals | 19.9% | 80.1% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 79.7% | 20.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 47.3% | 52.7% |
| 2.5 goals | 21.5% | 78.5% |
Goals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side's recent games.
Form & head-to-head
Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.
Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.
L
L
D
L
L
0 wins · 1 draw · 4 losses
W
D
L
L
W
2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
Match outlook
The model leans Derby to win.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 24,343 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 54.4% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 4 Nov 2026.
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 2.5 goals at 50.3%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. Recent output points the same way: Derby have averaged 0.6 scored and 2.8 conceded, Bolton 1.4 and 1.8 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 50.3% for over 2.5 and 75.5% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 goals a game. Derby have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Bolton in 3 of 5. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.
In-depth analysis
Looking at totals, the model sees 50.3% for three or more goals and 75.5% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Derby favoured at 47.0%, a competitive game tends to open up.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
This season
2026/27 · Recorded results.
Bar scales · Goals per game: 0–3 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Derby vs Bolton?
Will there be a first-half goal in Derby vs Bolton?
How often have Derby gone over 2.5 recently?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Championship, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
