AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Eredivisie
Den HaagDen HaagLLDDW
Full time2-3Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1020:00UK
HeerenveenHeerenveenLDWLW

Den Haag 2-3 Heerenveen cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined67.9%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined32.1%

Result

Den Haag2-3Heerenveen
1 yellow cardsDen Haag 1, Heerenveen 0
0 red cardsDen Haag 0, Heerenveen 0
Under 3.5No

We called Under 3.5 at 67.9% and it landed (1 in the match). We called No at 87.2% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards32.1%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Jannick van der Laan

Recorded match referee.

Jannick van der Laan in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 25 6
Goals 2.68 3.50
Yellow cards 2.88 2.33
Red cards 0.08 0.17
Corners 12.0 11.8
Fouls 22.6 21.5
Both teams scored 48% 67%
Over 2.5 goals 40% 67%
Home wins 44% 33%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Den Haag vs Heerenveen 2-3 5 Yes 1 0 10 26
11 Oct 2026 Utrecht vs Willem II 3-1 4 Yes 2 0 10 28
19 Sep 2026 Ajax vs Excelsior 2-2 4 Yes 3 0 9 18
12 Sep 2026 Twente vs Den Haag 2-0 2 No 4 0 14 21
30 Aug 2026 Willem II vs Heerenveen 2-2 4 Yes 0 0 16 14
9 Aug 2026 Zwolle vs Ajax 0-2 2 No 4 1 12 22
21 May 2026 Utrecht vs Heerenveen 3-2 5 Yes 1 Not available 15 17
10 May 2026 Twente vs Sparta Rotterdam 4-0 4 No 2 0 11 15
26 Apr 2026 Heracles vs Volendam 0-2 2 No 1 0 14 28
4 Apr 2026 Telstar vs Groningen 0-2 2 No 3 0 17 22

Jannick van der Laan referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Den Haag vs Heerenveen. It tips Heerenveen for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 54.2% 45.8%
3.5 cards 32.1% 67.9%
4.5 cards 16.3% 83.7%
5.5 cards 7.2% 92.8%

Who picks up more cards

Den Haag
31.2%
Level
24.6%
Heerenveen
44.2%

Team cards lines

Den Haag

Over 1.5
36.6%
Over 2.5
14.0%

Heerenveen

Over 1.5
46.5%
Over 2.5
21.1%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Den Haag's; Heerenveen gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Den Haag line Den Haag Heerenveen
-1.5 13.5% 86.5%
-0.5 31.2% 68.8%
+0.5 55.8% 44.2%
+1.5 77.5% 22.5%

Red card

Any red card12.8%
Den Haag red card7.0%
Heerenveen red card6.3%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 55.0% 45.0%
22.5 fouls 39.6% 60.4%
24.5 fouls 26.2% 73.8%
Den HaagDen Haag

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Den Haag at home and Heerenveen away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

HeerenveenHeerenveen
Statistic
Den Haag
Heerenveen
Yellow cards per game
1.5
·

First-half yellow cards per game
0.2
·

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.3
·

Matches with card data
1
2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 7,352 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 32.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 54.2% for over 2.5 to 7.2% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.2%. On the card count, Heerenveen are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.2%, with a level count at 24.6%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Den Haag over 1.5 cards sits at 36.6% and Heerenveen at 46.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 12.8% (Den Haag 7.0%, Heerenveen 6.3%).

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

32.1%Over 3.5 cards
12.8%Any red card
44.2%Most cards: Heerenveen
36.6%Den Haag over 1.5 cards
46.5%Heerenveen over 1.5 cards
39.6%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 32.1% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 12.8%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianHeerenveen are the pick to collect more cards at 44.2%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 2.5 cards: over sits at 54.2%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
Den HaagDen Haag

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

HeerenveenHeerenveen
Statistic
Den Haag
Heerenveen
fouls per game
12.5
8.3

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Den Haag vs Heerenveen?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 32.1% for Den Haag vs Heerenveen.
Will there be a red card in Den Haag vs Heerenveen?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 12.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Den Haag vs Heerenveen?
Before kickoff, the model rated Heerenveen to pick up more cards at 44.2%, with a level count at 24.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.