AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Premier League
Crystal PalaceCrystal PalaceWLDWL
Full time0-2Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1014:00UK13°C · Clear
NewcastleNewcastleDLWLL

Crystal Palace 0-2 Newcastle cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined53.7%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined46.3%

Result

Crystal Palace0-2Newcastle
6 yellow cardsCrystal Palace 3, Newcastle 3
0 red cardsCrystal Palace 0, Newcastle 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 53.7% and it landed (6 in the match). We called No at 91.9% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards53.7%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Paul Tierney

Recorded match referee.

Paul Tierney in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 280 7
Goals 2.66 2.57
Yellow cards 3.40 4.00
Red cards 0.11 0.14
Corners 10.0 9.9
Fouls 22.6 25.3
Both teams scored 49% 43%
Over 2.5 goals 51% 43%
Home wins 40% 57%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
25 Oct 2026 Crystal Palace vs Newcastle 0-2 2 No 6 0 11 22
17 Oct 2026 Everton vs Chelsea 0-2 2 No 7 0 12 23
10 Oct 2026 Arsenal vs Leeds 2-1 3 Yes 5 0 6 32
19 Sep 2026 Millwall vs West HamChampionship 2-2 4 Yes 5 1 14 35
5 Sep 2026 Manchester City vs Coventry 1-0 1 No 3 0 9 24
29 Aug 2026 Middlesbrough vs West BromChampionship 3-1 4 Yes 1 0 13 21
22 Aug 2026 Everton vs Crystal Palace 2-0 2 No 1 0 4 20
18 May 2026 Arsenal vs Burnley 1-0 1 No 4 0 6 23
10 May 2026 Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle 1-1 2 Yes 2 0 3 27
2 May 2026 Wolves vs Sunderland 1-1 2 Yes 4 1 9 22

Paul Tierney referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Crystal Palace vs Newcastle. The model leans toward Newcastle for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 73.9% 26.1%
3.5 cards 53.7% 46.3%
4.5 cards 34.2% 65.8%
5.5 cards 19.2% 80.8%

Who picks up more cards

Crystal Palace
36.4%
Level
21.1%
Newcastle
42.5%

Team cards lines

Crystal Palace

Over 1.5
55.1%
Over 2.5
28.2%

Newcastle

Over 1.5
59.5%
Over 2.5
32.4%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Crystal Palace's; Newcastle gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Crystal Palace line Crystal Palace Newcastle
-1.5 19.1% 80.9%
-0.5 36.4% 63.6%
+0.5 57.5% 42.5%
+1.5 76.3% 23.7%

Red card

Any red card8.1%
Crystal Palace red card5.2%
Newcastle red card3.1%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 56.9% 43.1%
22.5 fouls 40.6% 59.5%
24.5 fouls 26.2% 73.8%
Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Crystal Palace at home and Newcastle away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

NewcastleNewcastle
Statistic
Crystal Palace
Newcastle
Yellow cards per game
·
2.4

Matches with card data
2
2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 53.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 73.9% for over 2.5 to 19.2% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.7%. On the card count, Newcastle are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.5%, with a level count at 21.1%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Crystal Palace over 1.5 cards sits at 55.1% and Newcastle at 59.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 8.1% (Crystal Palace 5.2%, Newcastle 3.1%).

53.7%Over 3.5 cards
8.1%Any red card
42.5%Most cards: Newcastle
55.1%Crystal Palace over 1.5 cards
59.5%Newcastle over 1.5 cards
40.6%Over 22.5 fouls

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 53.7% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 8.1%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianNewcastle are the pick to collect more cards at 42.5%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 53.7%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

NewcastleNewcastle
Statistic
Crystal Palace
Newcastle
fouls per game
9.6
12.2

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Crystal Palace vs Newcastle?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 53.7% for Crystal Palace vs Newcastle.
Will there be a red card in Crystal Palace vs Newcastle?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 8.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Crystal Palace vs Newcastle?
Before kickoff, the model rated Newcastle to pick up more cards at 42.5%, with a level count at 21.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Premier LeagueCrystal Palace fixtures and statsNewcastle fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.