League TwoNewport County vs Grimsby Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 45.7%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 58.5% for over 22.5 to 23.5% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.7%. Head to head on shots, Newport County are the model’s pick to have more shots at 52.2%, with a level count at 6.4%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| 24.5 shots | 45.7% | 54.3% |
| 26.5 shots | 33.8% | 66.3% |
| 28.5 shots | 23.5% | 76.5% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
64.8%
47.0%
30.9%
57.5%
39.3%
24.2%
Shot handicap
| Newport County line | Newport County | Grimsby |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 39.4% | 60.7% |
| -0.5 | 52.2% | 47.8% |
| +0.5 | 58.6% | 41.4% |
| +2.5 | 70.7% | 29.3% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 63.3% | 36.7% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 50.3% | 49.7% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 38.0% | 62.1% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 27.2% | 72.8% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
9.2Newport County shots per game16.7Newport County shots faced per game14.7Grimsby shots per game9.7Grimsby shots faced per gameShot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Newport County.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
45.7%Over 24.5 shots47.0%Newport County over 12.5 shots39.3%Grimsby over 12.5 shots50.3%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Newport County over 12.5 shots sits at 47.0% and Grimsby at 39.3%. This season Newport County have averaged 9.2 shots a game and Grimsby 14.7.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Newport County vs Grimsby?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 45.7% for Newport County vs Grimsby.
Which team will have more shots in Newport County vs Grimsby?
The model rates Newport County to take more shots at 52.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 16,705 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More League Two, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
