League TwoPort Vale vs Northampton Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Under 2.5 goals at 54.7%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. The goals picture is built on form: Port Vale have averaged 0.6 scored and 1.0 conceded, Northampton 0.6 and 1.0 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 45.3% for over 2.5 and 71.7% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 1.4 goals a game. Port Vale have gone over 2.5 in 1 of their last 5, Northampton in 0 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 91.1% | 8.9% |
| 1.5 goals | 71.7% | 28.3% |
| 2.5 goals | 45.3% | 54.7% |
| 3.5 goals | 24.0% | 76.0% |
| 4.5 goals | 10.7% | 89.3% |
| 5.5 goals | 4.1% | 95.9% |
Team goal lines
74.5%
39.7%
15.9%
67.4%
30.9%
10.4%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| 1.5 goals | 19.0% | 81.0% |
| 2.5 goals | 4.7% | 95.3% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 59.4% | 40.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 22.8% | 77.2% |
| 2.5 goals | 6.3% | 93.7% |
This season (2026/27)
0.4Port Vale goals scored per game1.3Port Vale goals conceded per game14.3%Port Vale Over 2.5 rate0.3Port Vale 1st-half goals per game0.4Northampton goals scored per game0.9Northampton goals conceded per game0.0%Northampton Over 2.5 rate0.3Northampton 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
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5+
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
50.9%Both Teams to Score45.3%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 45.3% for three or more goals and 71.7% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Port Vale favoured at 41.8%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Port Vale to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Port Vale 2 · 2 draws · Northampton 1 · 1.4 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Port Vale vs Northampton?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 45.3% for Port Vale vs Northampton.
Will there be a first-half goal in Port Vale vs Northampton?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 54.9%.
How often have Port Vale gone over 2.5 recently?
Port Vale have gone over 2.5 in 1 of their last 5, Northampton in 0 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 20,722 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More League Two, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
