League TwoFleetwood Town vs Rochdale Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Under 2.5 goals at 55.0%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Fleetwood Town have averaged 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded, Rochdale 1.0 and 1.4 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 45.0% for over 2.5 and 71.3% for at least two goals. Fleetwood Town have gone over 2.5 in 1 of their last 5, Rochdale in 3 of 5. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 91.0% | 9.0% |
| 1.5 goals | 71.3% | 28.7% |
| 2.5 goals | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| 3.5 goals | 23.7% | 76.3% |
| 4.5 goals | 10.6% | 89.4% |
| 5.5 goals | 4.0% | 96.0% |
Team goal lines
80.5%
48.6%
22.5%
56.9%
20.7%
5.4%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 61.5% | 38.5% |
| 1.5 goals | 24.7% | 75.3% |
| 2.5 goals | 7.2% | 92.8% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 76.5% | 23.5% |
| 1.5 goals | 42.4% | 57.6% |
| 2.5 goals | 17.8% | 82.2% |
This season (2026/27)
1.1Fleetwood Town goals scored per game1.0Fleetwood Town goals conceded per game28.6%Fleetwood Town Over 2.5 rate0.5Fleetwood Town 1st-half goals per game1.0Rochdale goals scored per game1.4Rochdale goals conceded per game57.1%Rochdale Over 2.5 rate0.3Rochdale 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
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5+
In-depth analysis
46.4%Both Teams to Score45.0%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 45.0% for three or more goals and 71.3% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Fleetwood Town favoured at 55.5%, a competitive game tends to open up.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Fleetwood Town to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 45.0% for Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale.
Will there be a first-half goal in Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 61.5%.
How often have Fleetwood Town gone over 2.5 recently?
Fleetwood Town have gone over 2.5 in 1 of their last 5, Rochdale in 3 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 20,722 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More League Two, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
