League TwoFleetwood Town vs Rochdale Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Most likely · 13.2% at 1-0, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Fleetwood Town have averaged 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded, Rochdale 1.0 and 1.4 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 45.0% for over 2.5 and 71.3% for at least two goals. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-0 | 13.2% |
| 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 2-0 | 11.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% |
| 0-0 | 9.0% |
| 0-1 | 6.5% |
| 3-0 | 6.1% |
| 3-1 | 5.1% |
Score probability grid
| Fleetwood Town \ Rochdale | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 7% | 3% | 1% | · | · |
| 1 | 13% | 12% | 5% | 1% | · | · |
| 2 | 11% | 9% | 4% | 1% | · | · |
| 3 | 6% | 5% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | 1% | 1% | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Fleetwood Town goals, columns = Rochdale. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 13.2%. The grid is the model’s full scoreline distribution, not a single tip, but the shape of every plausible result. Darker cells carry more probability.
Goals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
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In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
46.4%Both Teams to Score45.0%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 45.0% for three or more goals and 71.3% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Fleetwood Town favoured at 55.5%, a competitive game tends to open up.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Form & head-to-head
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale?
The model's most likely scoreline for Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale is 1-0 at 13.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More League Two, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
