ChampionshipCharlton Athletic vs Bristol City Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 51.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 72.1% for over 2.5 to 17.6% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.4%. Head to head on cards, Bristol City are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.1%, with a level count at 21.4%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 72.1% | 27.9% |
| 3.5 cards | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| 4.5 cards | 32.1% | 67.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 17.6% | 82.4% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
53.7%
26.9%
57.8%
30.7%
Card handicap
| Charlton Athletic line | Charlton Athletic | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18.9% | 81.1% |
| -0.5 | 36.5% | 63.5% |
| +0.5 | 57.9% | 42.1% |
| +1.5 | 76.9% | 23.1% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 58.7% | 41.3% |
| 22.5 fouls | 42.8% | 57.2% |
| 24.5 fouls | 28.5% | 71.5% |
This season (2026/27)
1.6Bristol City cards per game11.8Bristol City fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Charlton Athletic vs Bristol City. The model leans toward Bristol City for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
51.4%Over 3.5 cards8.6%Any red card53.7%Charlton Athletic over 1.5 cards57.8%Bristol City over 1.5 cards42.8%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Charlton Athletic over 1.5 cards sits at 53.7% and Bristol City at 57.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 8.6% (Charlton Athletic 2.7%, Bristol City 6.1%).
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Charlton Athletic vs Bristol City?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 51.4% for Charlton Athletic vs Bristol City.
Will there be a red card in Charlton Athletic vs Bristol City?
The model rates a red card for either side at 8.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Charlton Athletic vs Bristol City?
The model rates Bristol City to pick up more cards at 42.1%, with a level count at 21.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,164 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
