ChampionshipCharlton Athletic vs Bristol City Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 51.1%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 63.6% for over 22.5 to 27.9% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.1%. On the shot count, Charlton Athletic are the model’s pick to have more shots at 59.3%, with a level count at 6.1%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 63.6% | 36.4% |
| 24.5 shots | 51.1% | 48.9% |
| 26.5 shots | 38.8% | 61.2% |
| 28.5 shots | 27.9% | 72.2% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
72.2%
55.7%
39.2%
56.1%
37.9%
23.0%
Shot handicap
| Charlton Athletic line | Charlton Athletic | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 34.3% | 65.7% |
| -2.5 | 46.6% | 53.4% |
| -0.5 | 59.3% | 40.7% |
| +0.5 | 65.3% | 34.7% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 70.2% | 29.8% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 57.7% | 42.3% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 44.9% | 55.1% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 33.2% | 66.8% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
14.3Bristol City shots per game12.6Bristol City shots faced per gameTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Charlton Athletic.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
51.1%Over 24.5 shots55.7%Charlton Athletic over 12.5 shots37.9%Bristol City over 12.5 shots57.7%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Charlton Athletic over 12.5 shots sits at 55.7% and Bristol City at 37.9%.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Charlton Athletic vs Bristol City?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 51.1% for Charlton Athletic vs Bristol City.
Which team will have more shots in Charlton Athletic vs Bristol City?
The model rates Charlton Athletic to take more shots at 59.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 12,949 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Championship, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
