ChampionshipBolton vs Stoke Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 52.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 73.0% for over 2.5 to 18.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.6%. Between the two sides, Stoke are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 47.9%, with a level count at 20.9%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 73.0% | 27.0% |
| 3.5 cards | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| 4.5 cards | 33.1% | 66.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 18.4% | 81.6% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
50.2%
23.9%
62.3%
35.3%
Card handicap
| Bolton line | Bolton | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15.3% | 84.7% |
| -0.5 | 31.2% | 68.8% |
| +0.5 | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| +1.5 | 72.1% | 27.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 61.1% | 38.9% |
| 22.5 fouls | 45.3% | 54.7% |
| 24.5 fouls | 30.7% | 69.3% |
This season (2026/27)
1.6Bolton cards per game11.0Bolton fouls per game2.8Stoke cards per game15.4Stoke fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Bolton vs Stoke. It tips Stoke for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.
52.6%Over 3.5 cards20.9%Any red card50.2%Bolton over 1.5 cards62.3%Stoke over 1.5 cards45.3%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Bolton over 1.5 cards sits at 50.2% and Stoke at 62.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 20.9% (Bolton 5.5%, Stoke 16.4%). This season Bolton have averaged 1.6 cards a game and Stoke 2.8.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Bolton vs Stoke?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 52.6% for Bolton vs Stoke.
Will there be a red card in Bolton vs Stoke?
The model rates a red card for either side at 20.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Bolton vs Stoke?
The model rates Stoke to pick up more cards at 47.9%, with a level count at 20.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,164 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
