ChampionshipSwansea vs 
Norwich Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 53.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 74.0% for over 2.5 to 19.2% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.7%. Head to head on cards, Norwich are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 49.2%, with a level count at 20.6%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 74.0% | 26.0% |
| 3.5 cards | 53.7% | 46.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 34.3% | 65.7% |
| 5.5 cards | 19.2% | 80.8% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
50.1%
23.8%
63.8%
36.9%
Card handicap
| Swansea line | Swansea | Norwich |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14.7% | 85.3% |
| -0.5 | 30.2% | 69.8% |
| +0.5 | 50.8% | 49.2% |
| +1.5 | 70.8% | 29.2% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 62.0% | 38.0% |
| 22.5 fouls | 46.3% | 53.7% |
| 24.5 fouls | 31.6% | 68.4% |
This season (2026/27)
1.8Swansea cards per game9.3Swansea fouls per game2.5Norwich cards per game11.3Norwich fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Swansea vs Norwich. The model leans toward Norwich for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
53.7%Over 3.5 cards5.9%Any red card50.1%Swansea over 1.5 cards63.8%Norwich over 1.5 cards46.3%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Swansea over 1.5 cards sits at 50.1% and Norwich at 63.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 5.9% (Swansea 1.7%, Norwich 4.2%). This season Swansea have averaged 1.8 cards a game and Norwich 2.5.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Swansea vs Norwich?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 53.7% for Swansea vs Norwich.
Will there be a red card in Swansea vs Norwich?
The model rates a red card for either side at 5.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Swansea vs Norwich?
The model rates Norwich to pick up more cards at 49.2%, with a level count at 20.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,164 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
