Championship
West Ham vs Queens Park Rangers Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 49.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 70.9% for over 2.5 to 16.5% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.9%. On the card count, Queens Park Rangers are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.5%, with a level count at 21.6%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 70.9% | 29.1% |
| 3.5 cards | 49.9% | 50.1% |
| 4.5 cards | 30.6% | 69.4% |
| 5.5 cards | 16.5% | 83.5% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
51.5%
25.0%
57.8%
30.7%
Card handicap
| West Ham line | West Ham | Queens Park Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17.6% | 82.4% |
| -0.5 | 34.9% | 65.1% |
| +0.5 | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| +1.5 | 75.9% | 24.1% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 59.7% | 40.3% |
| 22.5 fouls | 43.9% | 56.1% |
| 24.5 fouls | 29.5% | 70.5% |
This season (2026/27)
2.3West Ham cards per game10.0West Ham fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for West Ham vs Queens Park Rangers. The model leans toward Queens Park Rangers for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
49.9%Over 3.5 cards9.7%Any red card51.5%West Ham over 1.5 cards57.8%Queens Park Rangers over 1.5 cards43.9%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, West Ham over 1.5 cards sits at 51.5% and Queens Park Rangers at 57.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 9.7% (West Ham 7.1%, Queens Park Rangers 2.7%).
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in West Ham vs Queens Park Rangers?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 49.9% for West Ham vs Queens Park Rangers.
Will there be a red card in West Ham vs Queens Park Rangers?
The model rates a red card for either side at 9.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in West Ham vs Queens Park Rangers?
The model rates Queens Park Rangers to pick up more cards at 43.5%, with a level count at 21.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,197 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
