Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Bristol City41.7%
Win probability · fair 2.40
Top signals
Over 1.5 goalsLikely73.4%Fair 1.36
Draw or Bristol CityLikely69.3%Fair 1.44
Over 8.5 cornersLikely65.6%Fair 1.52
Model read
▾
"When model and market disagree on Bristol City, that gap is the story." Our engine prices Bristol City at 42% for 10 October 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. No strong lean on goals (48% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. As a promoted side, Charlton Athletic carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 2.5 goals47.6%@ 2.10
Over 10.5 corners44.5%@ 2.25
Bristol City win41.7%@ 2.40
Medium risk
Charlton Athletic or draw58.3%@ 1.72
Over 9.5 corners55.0%@ 1.82
Both teams to score52.7%@ 1.90
Random finds
1-1 correct score13.1%@ 7.61
0-1 correct score10.1%@ 9.94
1-2 correct score8.8%@ 11.38
Model vs market
Charlton
30.7%
Draw
27.6%
Bristol City
41.7%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely73.4%Fair 1.36
Over 2.5Close call47.6%Fair 2.10
BTTS · YesClose call52.7%Fair 1.90
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersLikely65.6%Fair 1.52
Over 9.5 cornersClose call55.0%Fair 1.82
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely44.5%Fair 2.25
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely34.8%Fair 2.87
Most cornersCharlton Athletic54.6%Bristol City34.8%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely63.6%Fair 1.57
Over 24.5 shotsClose call51.1%Fair 1.96
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely38.8%Fair 2.58
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot27.9%Fair 3.59
Recent shot volume
Bristol City15.3 taken11.5 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
0.5·1.573.4%2.547.6%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.573.4%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Charlton Athletic win3.25
Draw3.63
Bristol City win2.40
Both teams to score1.90
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.36
Over 2.5 goals2.10
Over 3.5 goals3.86
Charlton Athletic most3.25
Bristol City most2.40
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.27
Over 8.5 corners1.46
Over 9.5 corners1.76
Over 10.5 corners2.22
Charlton Athletic most1.83
Bristol City most2.87
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.39
Over 3.5 cards1.94
Over 4.5 cards3.12
Over 5.5 cards5.69
Charlton Athletic most2.74
Bristol City most2.37
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.42
Over 7.5 SoT1.73
Over 8.5 SoT2.23
Over 9.5 SoT3.01
Charlton Athletic most2.05
Bristol City most2.61
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.57
Over 24.5 shots1.96
Over 26.5 shots2.58
Over 28.5 shots3.59
Charlton Athletic most1.69
Bristol City most2.88
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.70
Over 22.5 fouls2.34
Over 24.5 fouls3.51
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
63.6%
Over 24.5
51.1%
Over 26.5
38.8%
Over 28.5
27.8%
Most: Charlton Athletic
59.3%
Most: Bristol City
34.7%
Charlton Athletic Over 13.2
47.2%
Bristol City Over 13.2
29.9%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
70.2%
Over 7.5
57.7%
Over 8.5
44.9%
Over 9.5
33.2%
Most: Charlton Athletic
48.7%
Most: Bristol City
38.4%
Charlton Athletic Over 4.2
43.7%
Bristol City Over 4.2
36.3%
Cards
Over 2.5
72.1%
Over 3.5
51.4%
Over 4.5
32.1%
Most: Charlton Athletic
36.5%
Most: Bristol City
42.1%
Charlton Athletic Over 1.8
53.7%
Bristol City Over 1.8
57.8%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Charlton Athletic clean sheet
24.5%
Bristol City clean sheet
30.9%
Charlton Athletic win to nil
16.3%
Bristol City win to nil
22.7%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
30.7%
draw
27.6%
away
41.7%
double_chance
1X
58.3%
12
72.4%
X2
69.3%
dnb
home
42.4%
away
57.6%
btts
yes
52.7%
no
47.3%
clean_sheet
home
24.6%
away
31.0%
win_to_nil
home
16.3%
away
22.8%
winning_margin
home_by_1
17.9%
home_by_2
8.7%
home_by_3plus
4.1%
away_by_1
21.6%
away_by_2
12.6%
away_by_3plus
7.5%
correct_score
0-0
8.2%
0-1
10.1%
0-2
7.5%
0-3
3.5%
0-4
1.2%
0-5
0.4%
1-0
8.3%
1-1
13.1%
1-2
8.8%
1-3
4.1%
1-4
1.5%
1-5
0.4%
2-0
5.2%
2-1
7.3%
2-2
5.1%
2-3
2.4%
2-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-0
2.0%
3-1
2.9%
3-2
2.0%
3-3
0.9%
3-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
4-0
0.6%
4-1
0.8%
4-2
0.6%
4-3
0.3%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
0.1%
5-1
0.2%
5-2
0.1%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.5%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
13.1%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
91.8%
under_0.5
8.2%
over_1.5
73.4%
under_1.5
26.6%
over_2.5
47.6%
under_2.5
52.4%
over_3.5
25.9%
under_3.5
74.1%
over_4.5
11.9%
under_4.5
88.1%
over_5.5
4.7%
under_5.5
95.3%
odd_even
odd
48.5%
even
51.5%
team_home
over_0.5
69.0%
under_0.5
31.0%
over_1.5
32.7%
under_1.5
67.3%
over_2.5
11.4%
under_2.5
88.6%
team_away
over_0.5
75.4%
under_0.5
24.6%
over_1.5
41.0%
under_1.5
59.0%
over_2.5
16.8%
under_2.5
83.2%
most
home
30.7%
draw
27.6%
away
41.7%
handicap
home_-2.5
4.1%
away_+2.5
95.9%
home_-1.5
12.8%
away_+1.5
87.2%
home_-0.5
30.7%
away_+0.5
69.3%
home_+0.5
58.3%
away_-0.5
41.7%
home_+1.5
79.9%
away_-1.5
20.1%
home_+2.5
92.5%
away_-2.5
7.5%
total_exact
exact_0
8.2%
exact_1
18.4%
exact_2
25.9%
exact_3
21.7%
exact_4
14.0%
exact_5
7.2%
exact_6
3.1%
exact_7plus
1.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
34.0%
draw
42.1%
away
23.8%
total
over_0.5
69.3%
under_0.5
30.7%
over_1.5
33.0%
under_1.5
67.0%
over_2.5
11.6%
under_2.5
88.4%
btts
yes
19.5%
no
80.5%
total_exact
exact_0
30.7%
exact_1
36.3%
exact_2
21.4%
exact_3
8.4%
exact_4plus
3.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
36.4%
draw
37.3%
away
26.4%
total
over_0.5
76.5%
under_0.5
23.5%
over_1.5
42.5%
under_1.5
57.5%
over_2.5
17.9%
under_2.5
82.1%
btts
yes
26.3%
no
73.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
27.1%
H/D
5.1%
H/A
1.8%
D/H
15.3%
D/D
15.7%
D/A
11.1%
A/H
2.4%
A/D
4.9%
A/A
16.5%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
78.7%
under_7.5
21.3%
over_8.5
68.3%
under_8.5
31.7%
over_9.5
56.8%
under_9.5
43.2%
over_10.5
45.0%
under_10.5
55.0%
over_11.5
34.1%
under_11.5
65.9%
over_12.5
24.7%
under_12.5
75.4%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
77.5%
under_3.5
22.5%
over_4.5
63.2%
under_4.5
36.8%
over_5.5
48.0%
under_5.5
52.0%
team_away
over_3.5
65.4%
under_3.5
34.6%
over_4.5
48.5%
under_4.5
51.5%
over_5.5
33.1%
under_5.5
66.9%
most
home
54.7%
draw
10.4%
away
34.9%
handicap
home_-3.5
24.7%
away_+3.5
75.3%
home_-1.5
44.0%
away_+1.5
56.0%
home_-0.5
54.7%
away_+0.5
45.3%
home_+0.5
65.1%
away_-0.5
34.9%
home_+1.5
74.5%
away_-1.5
25.5%
home_+3.5
88.4%
away_-3.5
11.7%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
63.6%
under_22.5
36.4%
over_24.5
51.1%
under_24.5
48.9%
over_26.5
38.8%
under_26.5
61.2%
over_28.5
27.9%
under_28.5
72.2%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
72.2%
under_10.5
27.8%
over_12.5
55.7%
under_12.5
44.3%
over_14.5
39.2%
under_14.5
60.9%
team_away
over_10.5
56.1%
under_10.5
43.9%
over_12.5
37.9%
under_12.5
62.1%
over_14.5
23.0%
under_14.5
77.0%
most
home
59.3%
draw
6.1%
away
34.7%
handicap
home_-4.5
34.3%
away_+4.5
65.7%
home_-2.5
46.6%
away_+2.5
53.4%
home_-0.5
59.3%
away_+0.5
40.7%
home_+0.5
65.3%
away_-0.5
34.7%
home_+2.5
76.2%
away_-2.5
23.8%
home_+4.5
84.9%
away_-4.5
15.1%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
70.2%
under_6.5
29.8%
over_7.5
57.7%
under_7.5
42.3%
over_8.5
44.9%
under_8.5
55.1%
over_9.5
33.2%
under_9.5
66.8%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
61.4%
under_3.5
38.7%
over_4.5
43.7%
under_4.5
56.3%
over_5.5
28.5%
under_5.5
71.5%
team_away
over_3.5
54.2%
under_3.5
45.8%
over_4.5
36.3%
under_4.5
63.7%
over_5.5
22.1%
under_5.5
77.9%
most
home
48.7%
draw
13.0%
away
38.4%
handicap
home_-2.5
24.7%
away_+2.5
75.3%
home_-0.5
48.7%
away_+0.5
51.3%
home_+0.5
61.6%
away_-0.5
38.4%
home_+2.5
82.8%
away_-2.5
17.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
72.1%
under_2.5
27.9%
over_3.5
51.4%
under_3.5
48.6%
over_4.5
32.1%
under_4.5
67.9%
over_5.5
17.6%
under_5.5
82.4%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
53.7%
under_1.5
46.3%
over_2.5
26.9%
under_2.5
73.1%
team_away
over_1.5
57.8%
under_1.5
42.2%
over_2.5
30.7%
under_2.5
69.3%
most
home
36.5%
draw
21.4%
away
42.1%
handicap
home_-1.5
18.9%
away_+1.5
81.1%
home_-0.5
36.5%
away_+0.5
63.5%
home_+0.5
57.9%
away_-0.5
42.1%
home_+1.5
76.9%
away_-1.5
23.1%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
58.7%
under_20.5
41.3%
over_22.5
42.8%
under_22.5
57.2%
over_24.5
28.5%
under_24.5
71.5%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
63.4%
under_9.5
36.6%
over_11.5
41.0%
under_11.5
59.0%
over_13.5
22.4%
under_13.5
77.6%
team_away
over_9.5
63.3%
under_9.5
36.7%
over_11.5
40.9%
under_11.5
59.1%
over_13.5
22.3%
under_13.5
77.7%
most
home
46.1%
draw
8.0%
away
45.9%
handicap
home_-3.5
24.1%
away_+3.5
75.9%
home_-0.5
46.1%
away_+0.5
53.9%
home_+2.5
69.3%
away_-2.5
30.7%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
8.6%
no
91.4%
home
yes
2.7%
no
97.3%
away
yes
6.1%
no
93.9%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Championship