Swansea vs Norwich prediction & probabilities (2026-10-10)

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Swansea vs Norwich: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 21 Sep 2026

Championship
Swansea

WWDLW

Sat, 10 Oct 202610/1012:30UK
Norwich

WLWWL

Model’s top convictions

77%

Over 1.5 goals

69%

Swansea or draw

65%

Over 8.5 corners

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Model pick

Swansea42.3%

Win probability · fair 2.36

Top signals

Over 1.5 goalsVery likely76.6%Fair 1.31
Swansea or drawLikely68.8%Fair 1.45
Over 8.5 cornersLikely65.1%Fair 1.54

Model read

A measured edge to Swansea: 42% is the model's line for this Championship meeting on 10 October 2026. The numbers that frame it: • No strong lean on goals (52% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 2 wins for Swansea, 2 draws and 1 for Norwich, averaging 3.2 goals a game. • Recent form reads W3 D2 L1 for Swansea against W3 D0 L3 for Norwich. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.

High risk

Over 10.5 corners43.9%@ 2.28
Over 11.5 corners34.2%@ 2.92
Norwich win31.1%@ 3.22
Medium risk

Draw or Norwich57.6%@ 1.74
Both teams to score56.0%@ 1.79
Over 9.5 corners54.4%@ 1.84
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.6%@ 7.94
1-0 correct score9.0%@ 11.12
2-1 correct score9.0%@ 11.15

Model vs market

Swansea

42.3%

Draw

26.5%

Norwich

31.1%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely76.6%Fair 1.31
Over 2.5Close call51.8%Fair 1.93
BTTS · YesClose call56.0%Fair 1.79

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersLikely65.1%Fair 1.54
Over 9.5 cornersClose call54.4%Fair 1.84
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely43.9%Fair 2.28
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely34.2%Fair 2.92
Most cornersSwansea53.0%Norwich36.2%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsLikely62.6%Fair 1.60
Over 24.5 shotsClose call50.0%Fair 2.00
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely37.8%Fair 2.64
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot27.0%Fair 3.71

Recent shot volume

Swansea13.2 taken11.8 faced
Norwich15.0 taken13.8 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.576.6%2.551.8%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.576.6%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

SwanseaWWDLW
NorwichWLWWL

Last 5 meetings: Swansea 2 · 2 draws · Norwich 1 · 3.2 goals/game.

2026-04-25Norwich 1-1 Swansea
2025-10-25Swansea 2-1 Norwich
2025-01-25Norwich 5-1 Swansea
2024-09-14Swansea 1-0 Norwich
2024-04-27Norwich 2-2 Swansea

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

SwanseaNorwich
League position#1 of 27#17 of 27
Record W-D-L5-2-13-0-5
Current streakW2L2
Points per game2.121.12
Record, home vs away2-2-01-0-3
PPG, home vs away2.000.75
Goals scored per game1.622.00
Goals conceded per game0.752.12
Scored, home vs away1.251.50
Conceded, home vs away0.252.25
1st half goals per game1.001.14
2nd half goals per game0.570.71
Corners won per game4.74.9
Cards per game1.92.9
Fouls per game9.011.3
Red cards this season01
Shots per game12.315.7
Shots faced per game11.013.1
Shots on target per game5.05.7
Over 2.5 rate

62.5%87.5%

BTTS rate

50.0%75.0%

Clean sheets

50.0%0.0%

Rates this season:SwanseaNorwich

League averages this season: 2.85 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 62% · BTTS in 67%. Full league tables & stats →

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Swansea win2.36
Draw3.77
Norwich win3.21
Both teams to score1.79

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.08
Over 1.5 goals1.31
Over 2.5 goals1.93
Over 3.5 goals3.37
Swansea most2.36
Norwich most3.21

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.28
Over 8.5 corners1.48
Over 9.5 corners1.78
Over 10.5 corners2.26
Swansea most1.88
Norwich most2.75

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.33
Over 3.5 cards1.81
Over 4.5 cards2.79
Over 5.5 cards4.89
Swansea most3.29
Norwich most2.03

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.46
Over 7.5 SoT1.80
Over 8.5 SoT2.34
Over 9.5 SoT3.20
Swansea most2.12
Norwich most2.52

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.60
Over 24.5 shots2.00
Over 26.5 shots2.64
Over 28.5 shots3.71
Swansea most1.73
Norwich most2.76

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.62
Over 22.5 fouls2.17
Over 24.5 fouls3.17
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 62.6% Over 24.5 50.0% Over 26.5 37.8% Over 28.5 27.0%
Most: Swansea 57.7% Most: Norwich 36.2%
Swansea Over 13.2 45.4% Norwich Over 13.2 30.4%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 68.3% Over 7.5 55.6% Over 8.5 42.8% Over 9.5 31.3%
Most: Swansea 47.2% Most: Norwich 39.7%
Swansea Over 4.2 41.2% Norwich Over 4.2 35.9%

Cards

Over 2.5 75.2% Over 3.5 55.3% Over 4.5 35.8%
Most: Swansea 30.3% Most: Norwich 49.3%
Swansea Over 1.8 51.3% Norwich Over 1.8 64.8%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.

Swansea clean sheet 28.5%
Norwich clean sheet 22.3%
Swansea win to nil 21.5%
Norwich win to nil 15.3%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 42.3% draw 26.5% away 31.1%
double_chance
1X 68.9% 12 73.5% X2 57.7%
dnb
home 57.6% away 42.4%
btts
yes 56.0% no 44.0%
clean_sheet
home 28.6% away 22.4%
win_to_nil
home 21.6% away 15.4%
winning_margin
home_by_1 21.2% home_by_2 12.9% home_by_3plus 8.3%
away_by_1 17.7% away_by_2 9.0% away_by_3plus 4.5%
correct_score
0-0 7.0% 0-1 7.4% 0-2 5.0%
0-3 2.1% 0-4 0.7% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 9.0% 1-1 12.6% 1-2 7.5%
1-3 3.1% 1-4 1.0% 1-5 0.3%
2-0 7.2% 2-1 9.0% 2-2 5.6%
2-3 2.3% 2-4 0.7% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 3.6% 3-1 4.5% 3-2 2.8%
3-3 1.2% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.3% 4-1 1.7% 4-2 1.1%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.4% 5-1 0.5% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.6%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.6%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.0% under_0.5 7.0% over_1.5 76.6%
under_1.5 23.4% over_2.5 51.8% under_2.5 48.2%
over_3.5 29.7% under_3.5 70.3% over_4.5 14.4%
under_4.5 85.6% over_5.5 6.1% under_5.5 93.9%
odd_even
odd 48.6% even 51.4%
team_home
over_0.5 77.6% under_0.5 22.4% over_1.5 44.1%
under_1.5 55.9% over_2.5 19.0% under_2.5 81.0%
team_away
over_0.5 71.4% under_0.5 28.6% over_1.5 35.6%
under_1.5 64.4% over_2.5 13.2% under_2.5 86.8%
most
home 42.3% draw 26.5% away 31.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 8.3% away_+2.5 91.8% home_-1.5 21.1%
away_+1.5 78.9% home_-0.5 42.3% away_+0.5 57.7%
home_+0.5 68.9% away_-0.5 31.1% home_+1.5 86.5%
away_-1.5 13.5% home_+2.5 95.5% away_-2.5 4.5%
total_exact
exact_0 7.0% exact_1 16.4% exact_2 24.8%
exact_3 22.2% exact_4 15.2% exact_5 8.4%
exact_6 3.8% exact_7plus 2.2%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 35.2% draw 39.8% away 25.0%
total
over_0.5 72.8% under_0.5 27.2% over_1.5 37.4%
under_1.5 62.6% over_2.5 14.3% under_2.5 85.7%
btts
yes 22.5% no 77.5%
total_exact
exact_0 27.2% exact_1 35.4% exact_2 23.1%
exact_3 10.0% exact_4plus 4.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 35.2% draw 37.5% away 27.3%
total
over_0.5 76.3% under_0.5 23.7% over_1.5 42.2%
under_1.5 57.8% over_2.5 17.6% under_2.5 82.4%
btts
yes 26.1% no 73.9%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 27.9% H/D 5.4% H/A 2.0%
D/H 14.0% D/D 14.9% D/A 10.8%
A/H 2.3% A/D 5.0% A/A 17.7%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 78.3% under_7.5 21.7% over_8.5 67.7%
under_8.5 32.3% over_9.5 56.1% under_9.5 43.9%
over_10.5 44.3% under_10.5 55.7% over_11.5 33.4%
under_11.5 66.6% over_12.5 24.0% under_12.5 76.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 76.4% under_3.5 23.6% over_4.5 61.7%
under_4.5 38.3% over_5.5 46.4% under_5.5 53.6%
team_away
over_3.5 66.1% under_3.5 33.9% over_4.5 49.2%
under_4.5 50.8% over_5.5 33.8% under_5.5 66.2%
most
home 53.1% draw 10.5% away 36.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.4% away_+3.5 76.6% home_-1.5 42.4%
away_+1.5 57.6% home_-0.5 53.1% away_+0.5 46.9%
home_+0.5 63.7% away_-0.5 36.3% home_+1.5 73.3%
away_-1.5 26.7% home_+3.5 87.7% away_-3.5 12.3%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 62.6% under_22.5 37.4% over_24.5 50.0%
under_24.5 50.0% over_26.5 37.8% under_26.5 62.2%
over_28.5 27.0% under_28.5 73.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 70.7% under_10.5 29.3% over_12.5 53.8%
under_12.5 46.2% over_14.5 37.4% under_14.5 62.6%
team_away
over_10.5 56.6% under_10.5 43.4% over_12.5 38.4%
under_12.5 61.6% over_14.5 23.4% under_14.5 76.6%
most
home 57.7% draw 6.2% away 36.2%
handicap
home_-4.5 32.8% away_+4.5 67.2% home_-2.5 45.0%
away_+2.5 55.1% home_-0.5 57.7% away_+0.5 42.3%
home_+0.5 63.8% away_-0.5 36.2% home_+2.5 75.0%
away_-2.5 25.0% home_+4.5 84.0% away_-4.5 16.0%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 68.4% under_6.5 31.7% over_7.5 55.6%
under_7.5 44.4% over_8.5 42.8% under_8.5 57.2%
over_9.5 31.3% under_9.5 68.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 59.0% under_3.5 41.0% over_4.5 41.2%
under_4.5 58.8% over_5.5 26.3% under_5.5 73.7%
team_away
over_3.5 53.7% under_3.5 46.3% over_4.5 35.9%
under_4.5 64.1% over_5.5 21.8% under_5.5 78.2%
most
home 47.2% draw 13.1% away 39.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 23.4% away_+2.5 76.6% home_-0.5 47.2%
away_+0.5 52.8% home_+0.5 60.3% away_-0.5 39.7%
home_+2.5 82.1% away_-2.5 17.9%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 75.2% under_2.5 24.8% over_3.5 55.3%
under_3.5 44.7% over_4.5 35.8% under_4.5 64.2%
over_5.5 20.4% under_5.5 79.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 51.3% under_1.5 48.7% over_2.5 24.8%
under_2.5 75.2%
team_away
over_1.5 64.8% under_1.5 35.2% over_2.5 38.1%
under_2.5 62.0%
most
home 30.3% draw 20.3% away 49.3%
handicap
home_-1.5 14.9% away_+1.5 85.1% home_-0.5 30.3%
away_+0.5 69.7% home_+0.5 50.7% away_-0.5 49.3%
home_+1.5 70.5% away_-1.5 29.5%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 61.8% under_20.5 38.2% over_22.5 46.1%
under_22.5 53.9% over_24.5 31.5% under_24.5 68.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 53.6% under_9.5 46.5% over_11.5 31.3%
under_11.5 68.7% over_13.5 15.2% under_13.5 84.8%
team_away
over_9.5 75.3% under_9.5 24.7% over_11.5 55.1%
under_11.5 44.9% over_13.5 34.7% under_13.5 65.3%
most
home 29.9% draw 7.2% away 62.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 13.0% away_+3.5 87.0% home_-0.5 29.9%
away_+0.5 70.1% home_+2.5 52.7% away_-2.5 47.3%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 6.2% no 93.8%
home
yes 1.8% no 98.2%
away
yes 4.5% no 95.5%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Swansea predictions · Norwich predictions · Championship

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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