ChampionshipDerby vs Wrexham Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 48.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 70.0% for over 2.5 to 15.8% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.8%. Between the two sides, Derby are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.1%, with a level count at 21.9%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 70.0% | 30.0% |
| 3.5 cards | 48.8% | 51.2% |
| 4.5 cards | 29.7% | 70.3% |
| 5.5 cards | 15.8% | 84.2% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
55.5%
28.5%
52.4%
25.8%
Card handicap
| Derby line | Derby | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22.1% | 77.9% |
| -0.5 | 41.1% | 58.9% |
| +0.5 | 63.0% | 37.0% |
| +1.5 | 81.0% | 19.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 55.6% | 44.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 39.7% | 60.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 25.8% | 74.2% |
This season (2026/27)
2.3Derby cards per game13.4Derby fouls per game1.1Wrexham cards per game11.0Wrexham fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Derby vs Wrexham. The model leans toward Derby for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
48.8%Over 3.5 cards3.5%Any red card55.5%Derby over 1.5 cards52.4%Wrexham over 1.5 cards39.7%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Derby over 1.5 cards sits at 55.5% and Wrexham at 52.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 3.5% (Derby 1.5%, Wrexham 2.0%). This season Derby have averaged 2.3 cards a game and Wrexham 1.1.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Derby vs Wrexham?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 48.8% for Derby vs Wrexham.
Will there be a red card in Derby vs Wrexham?
The model rates a red card for either side at 3.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Derby vs Wrexham?
The model rates Derby to pick up more cards at 41.1%, with a level count at 21.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,197 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 23 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
