Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
West Ham42.4%
Win probability · fair 2.36
Top signals
Over 1.5 goalsLikely73.1%Fair 1.37
West Ham or drawLikely70.0%Fair 1.43
Over 8.5 cornersLikely67.1%Fair 1.49
Model read
▾
West Ham versus Queens Park Rangers on 9 October 2026 tilts towards West Ham in our numbers (42%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. No strong lean on goals (47% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. As a promoted side, West Ham carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 2.5 goals47.1%@ 2.12
Over 10.5 corners46.2%@ 2.16
Over 11.5 corners36.4%@ 2.75
Medium risk
Draw or Queens Park Rangers57.6%@ 1.74
Over 9.5 corners56.6%@ 1.77
Under 2.5 goals52.9%@ 1.89
Random finds
1-1 correct score13.2%@ 7.60
1-0 correct score10.3%@ 9.73
2-1 correct score8.8%@ 11.31
Model vs market
West Ham
42.4%
Draw
27.6%
Rangers
30.0%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely73.1%Fair 1.37
Over 2.5Close call47.1%Fair 2.12
BTTS · YesClose call52.3%Fair 1.91
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersLikely67.1%Fair 1.49
Over 9.5 cornersClose call56.6%Fair 1.77
Over 10.5 cornersClose call46.2%Fair 2.16
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely36.4%Fair 2.75
Most cornersWest Ham55.4%Queens Park Rangers34.2%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely65.3%Fair 1.53
Over 24.5 shotsClose call52.9%Fair 1.89
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely40.6%Fair 2.46
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot29.4%Fair 3.40
Recent shot volume
West Ham15.0 taken13.0 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
0.5·1.573.1%2.547.1%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.573.1%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
West Ham win2.36
Draw3.62
Queens Park Rangers win3.33
Both teams to score1.91
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.37
Over 2.5 goals2.12
Over 3.5 goals3.92
West Ham most2.36
Queens Park Rangers most3.33
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.25
Over 8.5 corners1.43
Over 9.5 corners1.71
Over 10.5 corners2.13
West Ham most1.80
Queens Park Rangers most2.92
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.41
Over 3.5 cards2.00
Over 4.5 cards3.26
Over 5.5 cards6.05
West Ham most2.87
Queens Park Rangers most2.30
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.40
Over 7.5 SoT1.69
Over 8.5 SoT2.15
Over 9.5 SoT2.88
West Ham most1.64
Queens Park Rangers most3.68
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.53
Over 24.5 shots1.89
Over 26.5 shots2.46
Over 28.5 shots3.40
West Ham most1.54
Queens Park Rangers most3.40
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.67
Over 22.5 fouls2.28
Over 24.5 fouls3.39
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
65.3%
Over 24.5
53.0%
Over 26.5
40.6%
Over 28.5
29.4%
Most: West Ham
64.9%
Most: Queens Park Rangers
29.4%
West Ham Over 13.2
52.5%
Queens Park Rangers Over 13.2
27.2%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
71.5%
Over 7.5
59.2%
Over 8.5
46.5%
Over 9.5
34.8%
Most: West Ham
61.0%
Most: Queens Park Rangers
27.2%
West Ham Over 4.2
53.1%
Queens Park Rangers Over 4.2
28.5%
Cards
Over 2.5
70.9%
Over 3.5
49.9%
Over 4.5
30.6%
Most: West Ham
34.9%
Most: Queens Park Rangers
43.5%
West Ham Over 1.8
51.5%
Queens Park Rangers Over 1.8
57.8%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
West Ham clean sheet
31.6%
Queens Park Rangers clean sheet
24.4%
West Ham win to nil
23.2%
Queens Park Rangers win to nil
16.0%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
42.4%
draw
27.6%
away
30.0%
double_chance
1X
70.0%
12
72.4%
X2
57.6%
dnb
home
58.5%
away
41.5%
btts
yes
52.3%
no
47.7%
clean_sheet
home
31.7%
away
24.4%
win_to_nil
home
23.3%
away
16.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1
21.9%
home_by_2
12.8%
home_by_3plus
7.7%
away_by_1
17.7%
away_by_2
8.5%
away_by_3plus
3.9%
correct_score
0-0
8.4%
0-1
8.3%
0-2
5.1%
0-3
2.0%
0-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-0
10.3%
1-1
13.2%
1-2
7.2%
1-3
2.8%
1-4
0.8%
1-5
0.2%
2-0
7.7%
2-1
8.8%
2-2
5.1%
2-3
2.0%
2-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-0
3.6%
3-1
4.2%
3-2
2.4%
3-3
0.9%
3-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
4-0
1.3%
4-1
1.5%
4-2
0.8%
4-3
0.3%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
0.4%
5-1
0.4%
5-2
0.2%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.4%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
13.2%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
91.6%
under_0.5
8.4%
over_1.5
73.1%
under_1.5
26.9%
over_2.5
47.2%
under_2.5
52.8%
over_3.5
25.5%
under_3.5
74.5%
over_4.5
11.7%
under_4.5
88.3%
over_5.5
4.6%
under_5.5
95.4%
odd_even
odd
48.4%
even
51.6%
team_home
over_0.5
75.6%
under_0.5
24.4%
over_1.5
41.2%
under_1.5
58.8%
over_2.5
16.9%
under_2.5
83.1%
team_away
over_0.5
68.3%
under_0.5
31.7%
over_1.5
31.9%
under_1.5
68.1%
over_2.5
11.0%
under_2.5
89.0%
most
home
42.4%
draw
27.6%
away
30.0%
handicap
home_-2.5
7.7%
away_+2.5
92.3%
home_-1.5
20.5%
away_+1.5
79.5%
home_-0.5
42.4%
away_+0.5
57.6%
home_+0.5
70.0%
away_-0.5
30.0%
home_+1.5
87.6%
away_-1.5
12.4%
home_+2.5
96.1%
away_-2.5
3.9%
total_exact
exact_0
8.4%
exact_1
18.5%
exact_2
26.0%
exact_3
21.6%
exact_4
13.8%
exact_5
7.1%
exact_6
3.0%
exact_7plus
1.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
42.5%
draw
33.4%
away
24.1%
total
over_0.5
81.6%
under_0.5
18.4%
over_1.5
50.5%
under_1.5
49.5%
over_2.5
24.1%
under_2.5
75.9%
btts
yes
31.5%
no
68.6%
total_exact
exact_0
18.4%
exact_1
31.1%
exact_2
26.4%
exact_3
14.9%
exact_4plus
9.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
57.1%
draw
28.4%
away
14.5%
total
over_0.5
84.6%
under_0.5
15.4%
over_1.5
55.7%
under_1.5
44.3%
over_2.5
28.8%
under_2.5
71.2%
btts
yes
30.2%
no
69.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
38.4%
H/D
3.3%
H/A
0.9%
D/H
19.1%
D/D
9.5%
D/A
4.9%
A/H
5.5%
A/D
6.1%
A/A
12.5%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
80.0%
under_7.5
20.0%
over_8.5
70.0%
under_8.5
30.0%
over_9.5
58.6%
under_9.5
41.4%
over_10.5
46.9%
under_10.5
53.1%
over_11.5
35.9%
under_11.5
64.1%
over_12.5
26.2%
under_12.5
73.8%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
78.8%
under_3.5
21.2%
over_4.5
64.8%
under_4.5
35.2%
over_5.5
49.9%
under_5.5
50.1%
team_away
over_3.5
65.9%
under_3.5
34.1%
over_4.5
49.1%
under_4.5
50.9%
over_5.5
33.7%
under_5.5
66.3%
most
home
55.6%
draw
10.2%
away
34.2%
handicap
home_-3.5
25.7%
away_+3.5
74.3%
home_-1.5
45.0%
away_+1.5
55.0%
home_-0.5
55.6%
away_+0.5
44.5%
home_+0.5
65.8%
away_-0.5
34.2%
home_+1.5
75.0%
away_-1.5
25.0%
home_+3.5
88.6%
away_-3.5
11.4%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
65.3%
under_22.5
34.7%
over_24.5
52.9%
under_24.5
47.1%
over_26.5
40.6%
under_26.5
59.4%
over_28.5
29.4%
under_28.5
70.6%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
76.3%
under_10.5
23.7%
over_12.5
60.8%
under_12.5
39.2%
over_14.5
44.4%
under_14.5
55.6%
team_away
over_10.5
53.1%
under_10.5
46.9%
over_12.5
34.9%
under_12.5
65.1%
over_14.5
20.6%
under_14.5
79.4%
most
home
64.9%
draw
5.7%
away
29.4%
handicap
home_-4.5
40.0%
away_+4.5
60.0%
home_-2.5
52.6%
away_+2.5
47.4%
home_-0.5
64.9%
away_+0.5
35.1%
home_+0.5
70.6%
away_-0.5
29.4%
home_+2.5
80.5%
away_-2.5
19.5%
home_+4.5
88.1%
away_-4.5
11.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
71.5%
under_6.5
28.5%
over_7.5
59.2%
under_7.5
40.8%
over_8.5
46.5%
under_8.5
53.5%
over_9.5
34.8%
under_9.5
65.2%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
69.7%
under_3.5
30.3%
over_4.5
53.1%
under_4.5
46.9%
over_5.5
37.4%
under_5.5
62.6%
team_away
over_3.5
46.0%
under_3.5
54.1%
over_4.5
28.5%
under_4.5
71.5%
over_5.5
16.0%
under_5.5
84.0%
most
home
61.0%
draw
11.8%
away
27.2%
handicap
home_-2.5
35.7%
away_+2.5
64.4%
home_-0.5
61.0%
away_+0.5
39.0%
home_+0.5
72.8%
away_-0.5
27.2%
home_+2.5
89.6%
away_-2.5
10.4%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
70.9%
under_2.5
29.1%
over_3.5
49.9%
under_3.5
50.1%
over_4.5
30.6%
under_4.5
69.4%
over_5.5
16.5%
under_5.5
83.5%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
51.5%
under_1.5
48.5%
over_2.5
25.0%
under_2.5
75.0%
team_away
over_1.5
57.8%
under_1.5
42.2%
over_2.5
30.7%
under_2.5
69.3%
most
home
34.9%
draw
21.6%
away
43.5%
handicap
home_-1.5
17.6%
away_+1.5
82.4%
home_-0.5
34.9%
away_+0.5
65.1%
home_+0.5
56.5%
away_-0.5
43.5%
home_+1.5
75.9%
away_-1.5
24.1%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
59.7%
under_20.5
40.3%
over_22.5
43.9%
under_22.5
56.1%
over_24.5
29.5%
under_24.5
70.5%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
57.6%
under_9.5
42.4%
over_11.5
35.1%
under_11.5
64.9%
over_13.5
17.9%
under_13.5
82.1%
team_away
over_9.5
70.0%
under_9.5
30.0%
over_11.5
48.4%
under_11.5
51.6%
over_13.5
28.5%
under_13.5
71.5%
most
home
36.7%
draw
7.8%
away
55.5%
handicap
home_-3.5
17.3%
away_+3.5
82.7%
home_-0.5
36.7%
away_+0.5
63.3%
home_+2.5
60.4%
away_-2.5
39.7%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
9.7%
no
90.3%
home
yes
7.1%
no
92.9%
away
yes
2.7%
no
97.3%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Championship
West Ham