Ceuta 1-2 Sabadell cards: our prediction vs the result
Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Result
Ceuta1-2Sabadell
We called Over 3.5 at 75.2% and it missed (3 in the match). We called No at 86.6% and it missed (1 in the match).
Model read
A clear lean on the model's numbers.
Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.
Conviction: Strong
Over 3.5 cards75.2%
Cards (bookings)
Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.
Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Ceuta vs Sabadell. It tips Sabadell for the most cards.
Total cards
Both teams combined.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 88.6% | 11.5% |
| 3.5 cards | 75.2% | 24.8% |
| 4.5 cards | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 40.6% | 59.4% |
Who picks up more cards
CeutaSabadellTeam cards lines
Ceuta
Sabadell
Card handicap
The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Ceuta's; Sabadell gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.
| Ceuta line | Ceuta | Sabadell |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19.8% | 80.2% |
| -0.5 | 34.7% | 65.3% |
| +0.5 | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| +1.5 | 69.8% | 30.2% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 88.2% | 11.8% |
| 22.5 fouls | 79.5% | 20.5% |
| 24.5 fouls | 68.3% | 31.7% |
Card trends
2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Ceuta at home and Sabadell away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.
Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 8,516 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 75.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 88.6% for over 2.5 to 40.6% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 58.1%. Head to head on cards, Sabadell are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 47.4%, with a level count at 17.9%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.
In-depth analysis
For the team lines, Ceuta over 1.5 cards sits at 68.6% and Sabadell at 76.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.4% (Ceuta 5.5%, Sabadell 8.3%). This season Ceuta have averaged 2.5 cards a game and Sabadell 3.0.
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
This season
2026/27 · Recorded results.
Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
FAQ
How many cards in Ceuta vs Sabadell?
Will there be a red card in Ceuta vs Sabadell?
Which team will pick up more cards in Ceuta vs Sabadell?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Segunda División, Cards
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
