AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 5 Nov 2026

La Liga
CeltaCeltaWDWDL
Sun, 8 Nov 20268/1117:30UK19°C · Cloudy
LevanteLevanteDDWLL

Celta Vigo vs Levante cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined56.7%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined43.3%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards56.7%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Celta vs Levante. Slightly more cards are projected for Levante for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 75.9% 24.1%
3.5 cards 56.7% 43.3%
4.5 cards 37.7% 62.3%
5.5 cards 22.4% 77.6%

Who picks up more cards

Celta
35.1%
Level
20.1%
Levante
44.8%

Team cards lines

Celta

Over 1.5
55.6%
Over 2.5
29.3%

Levante

Over 1.5
62.4%
Over 2.5
36.2%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Celta's; Levante gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Celta line Celta Levante
-1.5 18.7% 81.3%
-0.5 35.1% 64.9%
+0.5 55.2% 44.8%
+1.5 73.7% 26.3%

Red card

Any red card18.3%
Celta red card10.1%
Levante red card9.2%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 74.9% 25.1%
22.5 fouls 62.0% 38.0%
24.5 fouls 48.2% 51.8%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Levante Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea 2 1.0 0.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

CeltaCelta

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Celta at home and Levante away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

LevanteLevante
Statistic
Celta
Levante
Yellow cards per game
1.9
1.5

First-half yellow cards per game
0.6
0.5

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.4
1.1

Matches with more cards than the opponent
·
0.0%

Matches with card data
6
8
Red cards this season
1
0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.1%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0224Calibration error
54,319Matches graded

In 12,188 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 5 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 54.7%✓ 58.7%✗ 50.2%✓ 53.8%✗ 54.8%✗ 53.5%✗ 53.4%✗ 51.8%✓ 54.1%✓ 50.3%
4 of 10 recent calls hit.
Cardiff vs West Ham2026-11-04Over 3.5 54.7%Miss
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough2026-11-04Under 3.5 58.7%Hit
Bristol City vs Wolves2026-11-04Over 3.5 50.2%Miss
Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen2026-11-04Over 3.5 53.8%Hit
Blackburn vs Stoke2026-11-03Under 3.5 54.8%Miss
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 56.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 75.9% for over 2.5 to 22.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 56.7%. Between the two sides, Levante are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.8%, with a level count at 20.1%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Celta over 1.5 cards sits at 55.6% and Levante at 62.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 18.3% (Celta 10.1%, Levante 9.2%). Levante’s most frequent referee this season, Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, has averaged 1.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

56.7%Over 3.5 cards
18.3%Any red card
44.8%Most cards: Levante
55.6%Celta over 1.5 cards
62.4%Levante over 1.5 cards
62.0%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 56.7% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherRicardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Levante’s most frequent referee this season, averages 1.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 18.3%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianLevante are the pick to collect more cards at 44.8%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
CeltaCelta

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

LevanteLevante
Statistic
Celta
Levante
cards per game
·
1.3

fouls per game
12.3
10.2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Celta vs Levante?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 56.7% for Celta vs Levante.
Will there be a red card in Celta vs Levante?
The model rates a red card for either side at 18.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Celta vs Levante?
The model rates Levante to pick up more cards at 44.8%, with a level count at 20.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More La Liga, Cards

Sevilla vs Alaves cards predictionMalaga vs Racing Santander cards predictionEspanyol vs Deportivo La Coruna cards predictionOsasuna vs Athletic Bilbao cards predictionValencia vs Real Madrid cards predictionElche vs Real Betis cards prediction

Cards predictions today

Related

La LigaCelta Vigo fixtures and statsLevante fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.