AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Segunda División
CastellonCastellonWWDLW
Full time4-0Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1017:30UK
Sp GijonSp GijonWLWWW

Castellon 4-0 Sporting Gijon cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined75.9%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined24.1%

Result

Castellon4-0Sp Gijon
3 yellow cardsCastellon 1, Sp Gijon 2
0 red cardsCastellon 0, Sp Gijon 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 75.9% and it missed (3 in the match). We called No at 80.0% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards75.9%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Gorka Etayo Herrera

Recorded match referee.

Gorka Etayo Herrera in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 10 1
Goals 2.20 Not available
Yellow cards 5.00 Not available
Red cards 0.20 Not available
Corners 10.4 Not available
Fouls 27.4 Not available
Both teams scored 30% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 40% Not available
Home wins 60% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
25 Oct 2026 Castellon vs Sp Gijon 4-0 4 No 3 0 5 23
10 Jan 2026 Santander vs Zaragoza 2-3 5 Yes 7 1 16 24
21 Dec 2025 Cadiz vs Castellon 2-0 2 No 6 0 18 24
8 Dec 2025 Burgos vs Albacete 0-1 1 No 4 0 10 26
23 Nov 2025 La Coruna vs Ceuta 2-1 3 Yes 3 0 8 23
9 Nov 2025 Las Palmas vs Santander 3-1 4 Yes 6 1 10 32
25 Oct 2025 Granada vs Cadiz 0-0 0 No 3 0 12 24
13 Oct 2025 Cordoba vs Cultural Leonesa 1-0 1 No 6 0 10 32
29 Sep 2025 Leganes vs Castellon 0-1 1 No 6 0 8 38
13 Sep 2025 Huesca vs Malaga 1-0 1 No 6 0 7 28

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Castellon vs Sp Gijon. It tips Sp Gijon for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 89.0% 11.0%
3.5 cards 75.9% 24.1%
4.5 cards 59.0% 41.0%
5.5 cards 41.5% 58.5%

Who picks up more cards

Castellon
29.9%
Level
17.3%
Sp Gijon
52.7%

Team cards lines

Castellon

Over 1.5
65.8%
Over 2.5
39.1%

Sp Gijon

Over 1.5
79.0%
Over 2.5
56.0%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Castellon's; Sp Gijon gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Castellon line Castellon Sp Gijon
-1.5 16.3% 83.7%
-0.5 29.9% 70.1%
+0.5 47.3% 52.7%
+1.5 65.0% 35.1%

Red card

Any red card20.0%
Castellon red card11.9%
Sp Gijon red card9.1%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 77.0% 23.0%
22.5 fouls 64.5% 35.5%
24.5 fouls 50.6% 49.4%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Castellon Marta Huerta de Aza 2 5.5 1.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 8,516 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 75.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 89.0% for over 2.5 to 41.5% for over 5.5, with over 5.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 41.5%. On the card count, Sp Gijon are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 52.7%, with a level count at 17.3%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Castellon over 1.5 cards sits at 65.8% and Sp Gijon at 79.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 20.0% (Castellon 11.9%, Sp Gijon 9.1%). Castellon’s most frequent referee this season, Marta Huerta de Aza, has averaged 5.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

75.9%Over 3.5 cards
20.0%Any red card
52.7%Most cards: Sp Gijon
65.8%Castellon over 1.5 cards
79.0%Sp Gijon over 1.5 cards
64.5%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 75.9% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherMarta Huerta de Aza, Castellon’s most frequent referee this season, averages 5.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 20.0%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianSp Gijon are the pick to collect more cards at 52.7%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.

FAQ

How many cards in Castellon vs Sp Gijon?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 75.9% for Castellon vs Sp Gijon.
Will there be a red card in Castellon vs Sp Gijon?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 20.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Castellon vs Sp Gijon?
Before kickoff, the model rated Sp Gijon to pick up more cards at 52.7%, with a level count at 17.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Segunda DivisiónCastellon fixtures and statsSporting Gijon fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.