Castellon 4-0 Sporting Gijon correct score: our prediction vs the result
Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Result
Castellon4-0Sp Gijon
Final score 4-0. The model gave that exact scoreline 2.4%.
Model read
No single outcome dominates, read the distribution.
Conviction: Open
Most likely · 12.1%1-1
Correct score
Score distribution: the model probability of each exact score.
Rows = Castellon goals, columns = Sp Gijon goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12.1%.
The grid is the model's full scoreline distribution, not a single tip, but the shape of every plausible result. The brightest cells are where the match is most likely to land.
Most likely scorelines
- 1-112.1%
- 1-011.3%
- 2-010.0%
- 2-19.7%
- 0-07.7%
- 0-16.3%
- 3-05.6%
- 1-25.6%
Score probability grid
| H / A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 11.3% | 12.1% | 5.6% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 10% | 9.7% | 4.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 5.6% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Rows: Castellon · Columns: Sp Gijon
Goals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
Form & head-to-head
Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.
Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.
W
W
D
L
W
3 wins · 1 draw · 1 loss
W
L
W
W
W
4 wins · 0 draws · 1 loss
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
Overall model accuracy
We don't yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Most likely · 12.1% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Castellon have averaged 2.2 scored and 0.4 conceded, Sp Gijon 1.8 and 1.2 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 49.4% for over 2.5 and 74.8% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 4.2 goals a game. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.
In-depth analysis
Looking at totals, the model sees 49.4% for three or more goals and 74.8% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Castellon favoured at 53.6%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
What was the score in Castellon vs Sp Gijon?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Segunda División, Correct Score
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
