Castellon 1-1 Ceuta cards: our prediction vs the result
Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Result
Castellon1-1Ceuta
We called Over 3.5 at 75.8% and it landed (4 in the match). We called No at 71.0% and it landed (0 in the match).
Model read
A clear lean on the model's numbers.
Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.
Conviction: Strong
Over 3.5 cards75.8%
Cards (bookings)
Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.
Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Castellon vs Ceuta. It tips Ceuta for the most cards.
Total cards
Both teams combined.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 88.9% | 11.1% |
| 3.5 cards | 75.8% | 24.2% |
| 4.5 cards | 58.9% | 41.1% |
| 5.5 cards | 41.4% | 58.6% |
Who picks up more cards
CastellonCeutaTeam cards lines
Castellon
Ceuta
Card handicap
The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Castellon's; Ceuta gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.
| Castellon line | Castellon | Ceuta |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18.4% | 81.6% |
| -0.5 | 32.8% | 67.2% |
| +0.5 | 50.4% | 49.6% |
| +1.5 | 67.8% | 32.2% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 88.4% | 11.6% |
| 22.5 fouls | 79.9% | 20.1% |
| 24.5 fouls | 68.9% | 31.1% |
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 8,516 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 75.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 88.9% for over 2.5 to 41.4% for over 5.5, with over 5.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 41.4%. On the card count, Ceuta are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 49.6%, with a level count at 17.7%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Castellon over 1.5 cards sits at 67.8% and Ceuta at 77.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 29.0% (Castellon 19.3%, Ceuta 12.0%). This season Castellon have averaged 2.0 cards a game and Ceuta 2.4.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
This season
2026/27 · Recorded results.
Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
FAQ
How many cards in Castellon vs Ceuta?
Will there be a red card in Castellon vs Ceuta?
Which team will pick up more cards in Castellon vs Ceuta?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Segunda División, Cards
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
