AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 11 Oct 2026

Segunda División
CastellonCastellonWWWWW
Full time1-1Sun, 4 Oct 20264/1017:30UK
CeutaCeutaLLLDW

Castellon 1-1 Ceuta corners: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined59.1%
Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined40.9%

Result

Castellon1-1Ceuta
10 cornersCastellon 3, Ceuta 7
Under 9.5

We called Under 9.5 at 59.1% and it missed (10 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 9.5 corners40.9%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Castellon.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 66.0% 34.1%
8.5 corners 53.3% 46.7%
9.5 corners 40.9% 59.1%
10.5 corners 29.8% 70.2%
11.5 corners 20.6% 79.4%
12.5 corners 13.5% 86.5%

Who wins the corner count

Castellon
57.7%
Level
11.0%
Ceuta
31.4%

Team corners lines

Castellon

Over 3.5
71.2%
Over 4.5
55.3%
Over 5.5
39.8%

Ceuta

Over 3.5
52.6%
Over 4.5
35.1%
Over 5.5
21.4%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Castellon's; Ceuta gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Castellon line Castellon Ceuta
-3.5 25.1% 74.9%
-1.5 46.1% 53.9%
-0.5 57.7% 42.4%
+0.5 68.6% 31.4%

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 21,932 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 40.9%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 66.0% for over 7.5 to 13.5% for over 12.5, with over 8.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.3%. Head to head on corners, Castellon are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 57.7%, with a level count at 11.0%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Castellon over 4.5 corners sits at 55.3% and Ceuta at 35.1%. This season Castellon have averaged 5.1 corners won a game and Ceuta 5.4.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

40.9%Over 9.5 corners
57.7%Most corners: Castellon
55.3%Castellon over 4.5 corners
35.1%Ceuta over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 40.9% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderCastellon are the pick to win the corner count at 57.7%, the count usually goes the way of the side doing the attacking.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 8.5 corners: over sits at 53.3%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
CastellonCastellon

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

CeutaCeuta
Statistic
Castellon
Ceuta
corners won per game
5.1
5.4

corners conceded per game
3.9
2.7

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Castellon vs Ceuta?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 40.9% for Castellon vs Ceuta.
Which team will win the corner count in Castellon vs Ceuta?
Before kickoff, the model rated Castellon to win the corner count at 57.7%, with a level count at 11.0%.
How many corners do Castellon and Ceuta average this season?
Castellon have won 5.1 corners a game this season and Ceuta 5.4.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Corner predictions today

Related

Segunda DivisiónCastellon fixtures and statsCeuta fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.